Win or lose, delight or disaster in Buffalo on Sunday, the New England Patriots path to a playoff return remains a brutal task.
Other than one solid home defensive performance against a Steelers’ team that appears destined for the middle of the conference pack, New England has yet to show a reason it belongs in the conversation.
The Bills are the Bills
Buffalo took losing its stronghold on the AFC East personally in the offseason.
Jettisoning game-bungler Sean McDermott was only the Bills’ first step to recovery.
Adding a legit outside threat, their first since Stefon Diggs, in D.J. Moore has opened up the field for Buffalo’s top pass-catching weapons.
Expect plenty from tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox on Sunday and beyond.
Defensively, Buffalo isn’t sitting back in punching-bag mode, a tactic McDermott employed annually in January to assure his team an early playoff exit.
Last week’s win over the Chargers was a prime example. Buffalo overcame five turnovers and still remained unbeaten.
That win, on a true off day, should scare the entire NFL, not just the Patriots.
Gang Green is not a joke
These next words are hard to type but Geno Smith is playing at a much higher level of quarterback than Drake Maye.
Both teams may be 1-2 right now, but you certainly have to respect the New York talent around the quarterback over the Patriots – mainly because of the early-season rash of injuries.
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
The two-game sweep over the New Yorkers that most had penciled in just isn’t a sure thing. In fact, both games will likely be dog fights.
The wealth of quarterbacks
Just three weeks into the 2026 season, the pool of “haves” in the AFC has grown over a year ago.
All four AFC North teams have at least two wins. Three of the four teams in the West do as well, with KC and Las Vegas each at 3-0.
Even if no Wild Card options develop in the South, that leaves a thick field with quarterbacks who can play – Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs, Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, Josh Allen in Buffalo and Bo Nix in Denver.
Then you have to account for the unexpected. Deshaun Watson and the Browns are 3-1. Kirk Cousins is 3-0 in Vegas. Could C.J. Stroud find himself again in Houston?
The Patriots are facing an uphill climb. Upsetting the Bills might be step 1. But the road is long and much more dangerous than it was in 2025.
