With the MLB trade deadline set for next Monday, the ultimate prize will indeed be available.
That prize is southpaw Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers, who will become a free agent at the end of the season. The 29-year-old won back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025, and with the Tigers tumbling out of the playoff picture, they have no choice but to capitalize on their ace's value before he walks for nothing.
Despite being a rental, the Tigers are demanding a haul of prospects in return due to Skubal's status as one of the best pitchers in baseball. This ultimately works to the detriment of a potential suitor: the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies have been a contender in the National League for the past several seasons, and overcame a slow start this year to get right back into the playoff race. They profile as buyers at the deadline, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic doesn't think they'd be in the Skubal sweepstakes.
Speaking on the Foul Territory podcast, Rosenthal explained that the Phillies lack the assets to acquire Skubal due to a weak farm system.
"I'm quite certain [Phillies president of baseball operations] Dave Dombrowski would love to get his hands on Skubal, I just don't see the Phillies having enough to do it," Rosenthal said. "And they have other needs too, particularly in the outfield and bullpen. This is not a team with a great farm system. I know Dombrowski told me last week 'teams want our players', I'm sure they do. But teams want other clubs' players more when talking about prospects."
The Phillies have been very aggressive at the trade deadline during their window of contention. Last year was an especially notable example, as they made a blockbuster deal for Minnesota Twins closer Jhoan Duran for two top prospects.
As a result, the Phillies' farm system isn't particularly strong at the moment. Their top-ranked prospect is right-handed pitcher Gage Wood, who ranks No. 48 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list. Compared to the prospects the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers have to offer, Philadelphia's package wouldn't be good enough to get Skubal.
Despite this, it can be argued that the Phillies shouldn't be in the Skubal sweepstakes to begin with. As Rosenthal alluded to, there are more pressing needs such as the outfield and bullpen. The Phillies have gotten a combined 0.3 fWAR from their outfielders, with Brandon Marsh being the only one worth a full win above replacement level. Meanwhile, their bullpen has a 4.39 ERA (23rd in MLB) despite Duran remaining one of the game's best closers.
On the other hand, the Phillies already have a fantastic starting rotation. Although Aaron Nola is struggling greatly this year, Philadelphia's one-two-three punch of Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo can go toe-to-toe with the league's best pitchers, even Skubal. Having the two-time AL Cy Young winner would make the rotation arguably the most fearsome in MLB, but the unit should still be a strength entering October, especially if Nola regains his form from past seasons.
Gutting the farm system for a rental in a position of strength wouldn't be an ideal strategy for the Phillies. Rather, they should fortify those aforementioned areas of need to have a more balanced team for the postseason.
