Indiana did not sneak up on anyone in 2025 after its arrival on the national stage the season before. But the Hoosiers' transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza somehow managed to keep a low profile.
Mendoza was considered a good fit for Curt Cignetti's offense and a solid get out of the portal from Cal. But a Heisman Trophy candidate? Fat chance.
Well, we now know how that went. Indiana won the Big Ten, Mendoza took home the Heisman and then, a few weeks later, red-and-white confetti rained down on the Hoosiers, the newly crowned (and undefeated) national champions.
Having seen what was once the losingest program in college football history pull off that dramatic of a turnaround should teach us all a lesson. First, Curt Cignetti sure can coach. And second, never say never.
Athlon identified the top Heisman Trophy candidates to watch this season. You are almost certainly familiar with the names on the list: Arch Manning, CJ Carr, Julian Sayin, Dante Moore. But you also heard those same players as contenders for this award this time last year, and none of them went on to win it.
We could be headed for a chalky race this season. But with Mendoza in mind, let's dare to dream about some sleepers who could surprise and be striking the Heisman pose in New York come December.
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Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, Cal
The last Heisman winner came from Cal, so why not the current Golden Bears quarterback? Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele joined Jared Goff — who went on to become the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft — as the second true freshman quarterback to start a season opener for Cal. JKS validated the coaching staff's decision to trust the young lefty by leading the Golden Bears to a bowl game and putting up exceptional statistics in the process.
Sagapolutele finished 18th nationally and fourth in the ACC with 3,454 passing yards. His 18 touchdowns were on the low end for how many times he aired the ball out and his nine interceptions were a touch high. JKS could stand to be more consistent, as Cal's schedule was full of upset wins and confounding defeats. But again, he was a true freshman.
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Retaining Sagapolutele was new Golden Bears coach Tosh Lupoi's top priority when he was hired. And once he brought back the quarterback, Cal added talent around him, landing wide receivers Ian Strong (Rutgers) and Chase Hendricks (Ohio) in the transfer portal to make up for the loss of top target Jacob De Jesus.
Sagapolutele's final two games last season — in which he accounted for 667 yards, six total touchdowns and zero turnovers against quality competition — bode well for a sophomore season breakout. The Golden Bears are projected to again finish in the middle of the pack in the ACC, but perhaps JKS can take them over the top.
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Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU
The Mustangs are considered to be one of the frontrunners in the ACC, but Kevin Jennings wasn't getting much Heisman hype even before a recent injury to a finger on his throwing hand.
SMU's quarterback is one of the most experienced in the country with 26 starts to his name. There seems to be a feeling that what Jennings has already done for his hometown team is as good as it's going to get. And an ACC championship trip and College Football Playoff appearance while performing at an all-conference level are nothing to scoff at. But what if Jennings still has another level that he can reach?
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Jennings' mobility took a big hit last season after he suffered an early ankle injury. After running for 354 yards in 2024, he managed just 54 in 2025. And turnovers were again an issue as he threw 13 interceptions. A return to Jennings' 2024 form, surrounded by a few new pass-catchers and complemented by what should be a rejuvenated run game, is hardly out of the question. And SMU was just a few points here and there from returning to the conference title game.
The Mustangs are going to be good once again, and they have enough marquee games on their schedule for Jennings to mount his case. Assuming a return to full health, maybe Jennings is a Heisman hopeful hiding in plain sight.
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Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
This story writes itself. Can't you see it already? The unsung recruit with a cannon for an arm makes the move to the Power 4 level with his coach and teammates and resuscitates a once-proud program right away. That's Drew Mestemaker's music.
Mestemaker led the country in passing yards (4,379) and yards per attempt (9.5) last season at North Texas and tied for No. 2 in passing touchdowns (34). There will be an increase in competition going from the American, where he led the Mean Green to the conference title game, to the Big 12. But familiarity is also working in his favor, as he's following head coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State and will be joined by wide receiver Wyatt Young and running back Caleb Hawkins.
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It won't take much for the Cowboys to be better this fall. They lost their last 11 games in 2025 and went winless against FBS opponents. Mestemaker's arrival raises the floor and ceiling in Stillwater to the point that a bowl game should be the expectation and a run at a conference championship trip is not out of the question.
North Texas lost both games it played last season against top-25 teams, and more ranked opponents await Mestemaker and Co. at Oklahoma State. But he put up numbers in victory (a school record 608 yards and four touchdowns against Charlotte) and defeat (three total touchdowns and 300-plus yards against South Florida).
Because of how bad the Cowboys were and the fact that Mestemaker was rarely in the spotlight at North Texas, his arrival is flying under the radar. But he earned a spot on Athlon's All-Big 12 second team and could be leading one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Besides, we've seen the coach-quarterback package deal work out too many times before to count him out.
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Devon Dampier, QB, Utah
You've just heard the case for a quarterback who followed his coach to a new program. But what about one who stayed after his coach left? Devon Dampier is still at Utah even after coach Kyle Whittingham's departure. And the dual-threat signal-caller showed plenty of promise in his first season with the Utes, especially late in the season.
Dampier arrived at Utah from New Mexico last season rather raw. He was a phenomenal athlete to be sure, having run for over 1,000 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2024 for the Lobos. But he also completed less than 60% of his passes and tossed as many touchdowns (12) as he did interceptions. That all changed in 2025. Dampier became a much more refined passer, improving his completion percentage and yards per attempt while doubling his touchdown output and cutting down on the turnovers. And he did all of this while continuing to be a threat in the run game with 800-plus yards and 10 scores.
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The Utes are likely worse off without Whittingham and the players he took with him to Michigan. What that means for Dampier is there's a greater onus on the offense to keep the team in games, much like the wild Kansas State comeback last November.
A potential concern with Dampier's candidacy as a Heisman sleeper is if new head coach Morgan Scalley gets backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin even more involved in the offense. But it's hard to see Utah taking a considerable step forward in the Big 12 without Dampier's play at the heart of that effort.
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Noah Fifita, QB, Arizona
Noah Fifita is firmly the best returning quarterback in the Big 12. He was named to the all-conference first team last season after setting a program record with 29 touchdowns and leading Arizona to a season no one saw coming. Fittingly, Fifita landed on Athlon's preseason first team as he heads into his fourth and final year as the Wildcats' starting signal-caller.
So why does it still feel like Fifita and Arizona aren't getting any love? He set career-highs across the board the year after losing first-round pick and longtime teammate Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL. Not to mention, he halved his interceptions. The experienced upperclassmen also added a new wrinkle to his game, rushing for over 200 yards and three scores.
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The Wildcats are atop the third tier in the Big 12. But if they're to break through and challenge for a spot in the conference championship — and therefore the CFP — it will be because of Fifita. He already holds the program record for career passing touchdowns. And when this season is through, he'll have passed Nick Foles for the most passing yards in program history.
Perhaps the most prolific passer Arizona has ever seen can add to his lore with a run at the Heisman. It's a long shot, to be sure, but Fifita showed last season that he shouldn't be counted out.
