The ACC and Big 12 have lagged behind the Big Ten and SEC throughout the College Football Playoff era. Miami nearly ended the run of national championships won by teams from the Big Ten and SEC last season, but Indiana prevailed, extending the streak to seven years.
The disparity in titles is really a numbers game. The Big Ten and SEC have disproportionately sent more teams to the CFP since it began in 2014. And that disparity has continued since the field expanded to 12 teams in 2024.
Teams from the Big Ten and SEC, the so-called Big 2 of the Power 4 conferences, have accounted for 15 of 24 spots in two years of the 12-team playoff. The ACC has sent three teams, which is as many as the Group of 6 conferences have produced, and the Big 12 has had two representatives.
© James Lang-Imagn Images
The Big Ten and SEC are again projected to account for more than half of the CFP field; they have historically dominated the at-large berths. One notable change to the format this season is that every Power 4 champion is guaranteed a spot. That means there’s no chance one of those four leagues will be left out, which almost happened last season to the ACC before the Hurricanes snatched up the last at-large spot.
- Related: College Football Playoff 12-Team Preseason Projections for 2026
Two contenders stand above the rest in the ACC and Big 12. Miami and Texas Tech are the favorites to win their respective conferences. Both teams made the CFP a season ago and are expected to do so again.
Including the aforementioned frontrunners, which teams from the ACC and Big 12 actually have a chance at breaking through to the CFP in 2026? Athlon made the case for the top six contenders.
(Rankings reflect positioning in Athlon’s Top 138 rankings.)
Miami
© Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
The Hurricanes have been there, done that after last season’s march to the national championship game. Miami made the field as the last at-large team, rather than as the winner of the ACC. This time around, the ’Canes are widely expected to win the conference they joined more than two decades ago, which would secure a second consecutive playoff appearance.
- Related: ACC Football 2026 Predictions
Coach Mario Cristobal has the best roster in the conference and one of the best in the country. Returners like wide receiver Malachi Toney, running back Mark Fletcher and defensive lineman Ahmad Moten give Miami a high floor. And highly touted newcomers, such as quarterback Darian Mensah, wide receiver Cooper Barkate and edge rusher Damon Wilson II, could put the Hurricanes over the top.
No. 7 Miami is one of seven teams with better than even odds to make the playoff, per FanDuel. A trip to Notre Dame is the hardest test on the calendar for the ’Canes. That should be the only game Miami is not favored in during the regular season.
Texas Tech
© Stephen Garcia/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Red Raiders are also coming off their first playoff appearance, though they are reeling a bit in the wake of the Brendan Sorsby saga. Texas Tech is moving forward with Will Hammond as its starting quarterback. And there is increasing optimism that he will recover from his torn ACL in time for a Week 1 return.
Even though their high-priced transfer portal addition did not work out, the Red Raiders still have the most talented team in the Big 12. Running backs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams are both back. And Hammond will be protected by a stout offensive line with tight end Terrance Carter as his top target. Texas Tech’s defense is once again loaded at every level. Coach Joey McGuire’s team has a special knack for getting to the quarterback, reinforced by transfer portal additions like Adam Trick and Mateen Ibirogba.
- Related: How 3 Key Transfers Highlight the Big 12’s Growing Talent Pool
The No. 12 Red Raiders are the second-heaviest favorite to win a power conference, only behind Miami. Accordingly, Texas Tech is widely expected to return to the playoff with the added benefit of another light regular-season schedule.
BYU
© Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
The Cougars were undefeated against teams not named Texas Tech in 2025. But they were blown out by the Red Raiders in the regular season and again in the conference championship by a combined score of 63-14. Coach Kalani Sitake returns more than half of his starters from one of the winningest teams in program history. And a potential rematch with Texas Tech won’t take place until the conference championship, opening up the door for an at-large berth.
- Related: Big 12 Football 2026 Predictions
No. 16 BYU brings back quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin, the engines of its offense. The Cougars are loaded on defense with linebacker Cade Uluave joining forces with Isaiah Glasker and safety Faletau Satuala leading the secondary.
Though the Red Raiders aren’t on the schedule in 2026, No. 4 Notre Dame is set to pay a visit to Provo. The Holy War against Utah also shifts back to Salt Lake City this season. The rest of BYU’s schedule is quite manageable, perhaps opening the door for a surprise playoff run after back-to-back seasons with double-digit wins.
Houston
Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
The other Cougars in the conference are also on the cusp of a breakthrough season. Houston has more roster stability than any team in the Big 12 and upgraded its talent pool in the portal. Last season’s success came as a bit of a surprise, but the Cougars aren’t catching anyone off guard this fall.
“I think people have got expectations for us after last season,” coach Willie Fritz told Athlon Sports in April. “And we got expectations. We’re looking forward to the year.”
- Related: Willie Fritz Embraces Houston’s Expectations in Suddenly Wide Open Big 12
No. 19 Houston returns quarterback Conner Weigman and star wide receiver Amare Thomas. Fritz also reunited with offensive lineman Shadre Hurst and running back Makhi Hughes, both of whom he coached at Tulane. They should make an impact on the side of the ball that the Cougars most need to improve. The defense remains the strength of this squad, headlined by one of the best secondaries in the sport.
The Cougars’ biggest games are both on the road against Texas Tech and Utah. Like BYU, their 2025 meeting with the conference champs did not go well. But on paper, Houston appears better-positioned to trade punches with the Big 12’s best.
Utah
© Rob Gray-Imagn Images
The Utes’ only losses last season were to the two conference championship game participants. And while Texas Tech and BYU look largely the same, Utah underwent a considerable offseason shift. Longtime coach Kyle Whittingham left for the Michigan job, which naturally prompted roster turnover and an air of uncertainty with Morgan Scalley stepping in as a first-time head coach.
- Related: Big 12 Football 2026 All-Conference Team
Scalley has been in the program for years with Whittingham, so there shouldn’t be a major shift institutionally. He also retained quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin, running back Wayshawn Parker, linebacker Johnathan Hall and safety Jackson Benee. That’s a strong enough foundation on both sides of the ball to weather some key portal losses and maintain the standard in Salt Lake City.
But can Scalley elevate the Utes? Last season marked a major step forward after a disappointing debut in the Big 12. The schedule breaks well for No. 20 Utah, which avoids Texas Tech and gets both BYU and Houston at home.
SMU
© Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
The Mustangs took a step back from their 2024 playoff appearance, but it’s worth zooming in on just how close they were to getting back last season. Among their three one-score losses, they fell a field goal short in the regular-season finale against Cal. Had SMU won, it would have returned to the conference championship game for the second year in a row, where it could have punched its ticket.
Coach Rhett Lashlee’s squad has been one of the ACC’s best teams since it joined two years ago. The Mustangs are 14-2 in conference play, including a win over Miami in 2025. And some of the main characters from that stretch are still around for another run, including quarterback Kevin Jennings, linebacker Alexander Kilgore and one of the conference’s best offensive lines.
- Related: ACC Football 2026 All-Conference Team
Putting up points won’t be an issue for No. 22 SMU, which added weapons around Jennings in the transfer portal. But a potential step back on defense is a concern. If they can hold things together on that side of the ball, they have a shot at returning to the ACC title game, where Miami likely awaits. Other than a trip to Notre Dame, the Mustangs’ most important regular-season game is at Louisville. And speaking of the Cardinals…
Louisville
© Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
The Cardinals have been among the most consistent teams in the conference under coach Jeff Brohm. But they have so far been unable to get over the hump, dating back to that forgettable 2023 conference championship appearance against Florida State. Like SMU, Louisville got the best of Miami a season ago. And also like the Mustangs, the Cardinals have had a knack for one-score losses in recent years.
- Related: ACC Coaches Talk Anonymously About Conference Foes for 2026
Whether the 2026 team can buck that trend hinges largely on quarterback play. Louisville went back to the portal for its solution under center, landing Lincoln Kienholz, a talented yet unproven signal-caller who won’t be short on talent. The Cardinals bring back the highly touted running back tandem of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown and added tight end Brody Foley and wide receiver Tre Richardson.
No. 23 Louisville’s defense is littered with talent, specifically in the linebacker room. It will be essential for the Cardinals to gel quickly with the opener against No. 11 Ole Miss and the ACC opener against SMU. That’s a tough start for a team with a new starting quarterback, but the rest of the schedule gives Louisville leeway to build up momentum for a playoff push.
