The final matchday of Group F could decide who advances to the 2026 World Cup Round of 32. Japan currently sits second in the group with 4 points, while Sweden is third with 3 points.
The Netherlands also has 4 points and faces already-eliminated Tunisia in the other Group F match.
Sweden started their 2026 World Cup campaign with a 5-1 win over Tunisia before suffering a heavy 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands. Japan, meanwhile, drew 2-2 with the Dutch before beating Tunisia 4-0 to put themselves in a strong position heading into the final game.
A win against Japan will guarantee Sweden its place in the knockout rounds, while a draw or defeat will leave it relying on the best third-placed team rankings.
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Sweden's World Cup Knockout Qualification Scenarios
If Sweden wins:
If Sweden beats Japan today, they will automatically qualify for the Round of 32.
The victory would move Sweden onto 6 points and secure one of the top two spots in Group F. They could even finish first in the group if the Netherlands fails to beat Tunisia. If the Dutch win, Sweden would finish as runners-up.
Finishing first would set up a Round of 32 meeting with the runners-up from Group C, while a second-place finish would mean facing the Group C winners.
If Sweden draws:
If Sweden draws with Japan, they will finish on 4 points.
Japan would automatically qualify with 5 points, while Sweden would finish third in the group and have to wait to see if they advance as one of the tournament's eight best third-placed teams.
4 points would give Sweden a strong chance of progressing. Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently the only third-placed team with more than 3 points, and several others, including Croatia, South Korea, Algeria, Paraguay and Scotland, are on 3 points or fewer.
If Sweden loses:
If Sweden loses to Japan, they will remain on 3 points and their qualification hopes will heavily depend on results elsewhere.
They could stay among the leading third-placed teams, but their final position would depend on goal difference and how other groups finish.
At the moment, Sweden is ahead of several third-placed sides because of their goal difference, but losing would weaken their position. A narrow loss could still leave them with a realistic chance of advancing, while a heavier defeat would increase the risk of elimination.
With eight third-placed teams advancing to the Round of 32, Sweden would still have hope, but it would complicate things a bit more.
