What Happens If Australia Win, Draw or Lose vs. Paraguay? World Cup Knockout Stages Qualification Explained

Australia and Paraguay face off in a decisive final Group D match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on June 25.

by Pragjyoti Singh

Jun 25, 2026

Connor Metcalfe #8 and players of Australia applaud fans after the team's 2-0 victory in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between Australia and Türkiye at BC Place Vancouver on June 13, 2026.

Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images

The final matchday of Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup brings a showdown between Australia and Paraguay at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium.

With the United States already securing the top spot in the group, second place is up for grabs between these two nations, with Turkey sitting at the bottom of the group, having lost both of their opening games.

After two matches, both teams have identical results and are only separated by goal difference.

Connor Metcalfe celebrates scoring his team's second goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between Australia and Turkey on June 13, 2026.

Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images

Australia opened their tournament with an impressive 2-0 victory over Turkey, but subsequently fell 2-0 to the United States.

Paraguay, on the other hand, had a rough start with a 4-1 defeat against the United States, but bounced back in their second match to defeat Turkey, 1-0.

MORE: Who Is the Referee for Paraguay vs. Australia World Cup Match?

Australia's World Cup Knockout Qualification Scenarios

If Australia wins:

If Australia wins the match against Paraguay, they will comfortably secure second place in Group D with six points. This guarantees them a direct place in the Round of 32, avoiding the need to rely on other group results and setting up a matchup, likely against the runner-up from Group I.
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If Australia draws:

If Australia draws against Paraguay, they will also successfully qualify for the knockout stages as the Group D runners-up.

Because Australia holds a better goal difference compared to Paraguay, a draw keeps the Socceroos ahead on four points, locking down second place and securing their automatic spot in the next round.

If Australia loses:

If Australia lose to Paraguay, they will drop to third place in Group D on three points while Paraguay climbs ahead of them into second. However, Australia would not necessarily be eliminated. Under the expanded 48-team World Cup format, the four best third-placed teams across all groups advance to the Round of 32.

As long as Australia avoids a massive, heavy defeat that destroys their goal difference, their three points and goal record would keep them in the mix to advance.