Week 1 NFL Picks and Predictions Against the Spread

Welcome to Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season! Beginning with Wednesday night’s Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, we’ve got four nights of prime-time action. Patriots-Seahawks is a biggie, as is the Thursday night clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne Australia. Sunday night’s tilt between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants is one of five divisional matchups on the Week 1 schedule. We end the week with Patrick Mahomes making his triumphant return from his knee injury as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos.

One of the most important games of the week has the Buffalo Bills visiting the Houston Texans. Both teams are Super Bowl contenders, so there’s a good chance this game will have playoff implications.

Here’s a look at Athlon Sports’ staff picks for every Week 1 game, with some notes that might help you make your picks:

Patriots +3 at Seahawks

The Seahawks would’ve won Super Bowl LX even without Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. Still the fact that Walker left for the Chiefs and Zach Charbonnet is still rehabbing his torn ACL could make a difference. There are several key injuries to note here, as star safety Nick Emmanwori is questionable with an ankle. On the New England side, big-play running back TreVeyon Henderson has been ruled out for this one.
Patriots: Cory Bonini
Seahawks: Luke Easterling, Craig Ellenport, Doug Farrar

49ers +3.5 vs. Rams (Melbourne, Australia)

The fascinating aspect of this game is how the two teams approached this long trip. Flying to Australia isn’t like crossing the pond for a game in London. The 49ers opted to arrive early so they can get acclimated to the 17-hour time difference. The Rams, on the other hand, are arriving as late as possible and just getting right to it. We’ll see how that affects some of the Rams’ old-timers like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald.
49ers: —
Rams: Bonini, Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar

Browns +8.5 at Jaguars

If Clemson fans weren’t still sulking over the beatdown they just took at LSU, maybe they’d be excited about a matchup of legendary Clemson quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence. Then again, maybe they’d rather forget that Watson is one of theirs.
Browns: —
Jaguars: Bonini, Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar

Buccaneers +3.5 at Bengals

Fresh off his new contract extension, Baker Mayfield gets to be the first quarterback to take on the Bengals’ rebuilt defense. The Bucs lost four of their last five last season, and Mayfield will need to be sharp to keep pace with Bengals QB Joe Burrow.
Buccaneers: Easterling
Bengals: Bonini, Ellenport, Farrar

Ravens -3.5 at Colts

Is this game a referendum on Lamar Jackson or Daniel Jones. Jackson sounds like he’s ready to go scorched earth on the rest of the NFL. Jones, meanwhile, is a full go after recovering from an Achilles tear. The Colts ended 2025 on a seven-game losing streak — but let’s not forget they were 8-2 before Jones went down.
Ravens: Bonini, Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar
Colts: —

Falcons +3.5 at Steelers

Tua Tagovailoa makes his debut for the Falcons, and we think Aaron Rodgers begins his final season in the NFL. (Right?) Tagovailoa and Rodgers are among the two most mysterious starting quarterbacks heading into the 2026 season. I have no expectations for either of them. Tua does have the better offensive weapons around him, though, so it will be interesting to see what he can do.
Falcons: Ellenport
Steelers: Bonini, Easterling, Farrar

Bills -1.5 at Texans

Former offensive coordinator Joe Brady makes his debut as head coach of the Bills, and he’s immediately faced with a major challenge. When these teams met in Week 12 last season, the ferocious Texans defense sacked Josh Allen eight times. Can Brady solve for that and open his tenure with a win? Or does Houston make an emphatic opening statement?
Bills: Bonini
Texans: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar

Bears -3 at Panthers

On the one hand, it’s one of just two matchups this week between 2025 division champs. On the other hand, it’s a team that finished 11-6 last season (Chicago) against a team that was 8-9 (Carolina). On one hand, it’s a battle of former No. 1 overall picks. On the other, it’s Caleb Williams vs. Bryce Young. You decide.
Bears: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar
Panthers: Bonini

Jets +1.5 at Titans

Let’s get this straight… The Jets are 8-26 over the last two seasons, and they are only getting 1.5 points on the road in this game? That tells you all you need to know about the titans, who are 6-28 over the last two seasons.
Jets: Bonini, Easterling, Ellenport
Titans: Farrar

Saints +7 at Lions

Some people think this game can be a shootout between Saints second-year QB Tyler Shough and the Lions’ Jared Goff. Maybe the New Orleans offense will be improved in Kellen Moore’s second season as head coach, but the Saints are literally heading into a Lions’ den. Detroit’s offense is particularly explosive at home, and Dan Campbell’s crew will be looking to make a statement after missing the playoffs last season.
Saints: Bonini
Lions: Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar

Cardinals +9.5 at Chargers

This is the largest spread of the week and for good reason. The Chargers are a playoff team and the Cardinals went 3-14 last season. Rookie running back Jeremiyah Love will likely be on a snap count for Arizona as he nurses a high ankle sprain. The Cardials will need Love to make a splash if they are to do anything this season.
Cardinals: —
Chargers: Bonini, Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar

Dolphins +3.5 at Raiders

Similar to the Jets-Titans game, the point spread tells the story of this matchup. The Raiders earned the No. 1 overall draft pick this year by finishing 3-14, and they open the season as 3.5-point favorites here. A lot of people are picking the Dolphins to finish with the worst record in the NFL this season. Rookie head coach Jeff Hafley would love to dispel that talk right off the bat.
Dolphins: Easterling
Raiders: Bonini, Ellenport, Farrar

Commanders +5.5 at Eagles

The Commanders look to bounce back after a disappointing season, but the schedule-makers didn’t do them any favors. The Eagles, who are looking to make a statement after unloading receiver A.J. Brown in June, are 5-0 in season openers under Nick Sirianni.
Commanders: —
Eagles: Bonini, Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar

Packers +1.5 at Vikings

The most important player in this game will not be playing. Packers linebacker Micah Parsons is recovering from his ACL tear — which is why the key stat here is that Green Bay is 0-5 (including a playoff loss) since Parsons was injured. Kyler Murray no doubt is relieved to be making his Vikings debut with Parsons watching from the sideline.
Packers: Easterling, Farrar
Vikings: Bonini, Ellenport

Cowboys -3 at Giants

The Cowboys’ revamped defense gets a good test here against an emerging Giants’ offense that will be that much more dangerous is Malik Nabers can get in the mix. Much attention will be paid to rookie safety Caleb Downs, Dallas’ first-round pick. Downs’ Ohio State teammate, linebacker Arvell Reese, will also play a key role as the Giants try to slow down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ attack.
Cowboys: Easterling, Farrar
Giants: Bonini, Ellenport

Broncos +2.5 at Chiefs

All eyes are on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes returning from his ACL tear. It’s a battle of teams that have combined to win 10 straight AFC West titles. The Chiefs have nine of those 10 crowns, but of course it’s Denver that is the reigning division champ.
Broncos: Bonini, Easterling, Ellenport, Farrar
Chiefs: —