The last two times Tyler Shough faced the Atlanta Falcons, he was sacked nine times and the New Orleans Saints lost both games. He gets a third try on “Monday Night Football” as the NFL’s second-leading passer, with 917 yards and eight touchdown passes through three games. He has also turned it over six times.
Both teams are 1-2, and the Saints are 2.5-point favorites at the Caesars Superdome. Here are four expectations for the Saints quarterback in Week 4.
Shough throws it 40 times again
Shough has attempted 132 passes in three games, an average of 44. His 147 dropbacks lead all quarterbacks, according to PFF, and his 76.7 percent true dropback rate is the highest among starters, per CBS Sports. The Saints have run 222 plays, more than any team in the league.
Atlanta gives head coach Kellen Moore no reason to change. The Falcons allow 47.7 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the NFL, and 263 passing yards per game, which ranks 29th.
Shough tops 275 yards with Chris Olave leading the way
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The Falcons will play without their best cornerback. A.J. Terrell Jr. is on injured reserve with a groin injury, which leaves veterans C.J. Henderson and Mike Hughes to deal with Olave. He has 27 catches for 375 yards, and no other Saints receiver has more than 15 receptions.
Shough has been accurate enough to take advantage. His 79.6 passing grade ranks eighth among 36 quarterbacks and his eight big-time throws lead the league, per PFF. Six of his touchdown passes have come from inside the 10-yard line, so a pair of scores is a reasonable ask even against a Falcons defense that ranks eighth in red-zone touchdown rate allowed.
Atlanta’s pass rush gets home
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The Falcons sacked Shough five times in a 24-10 win last November and four more times in a 19-17 win in January. He threw one touchdown pass and two interceptions in those games.
This front is built differently, with edge rushers James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker both unavailable, but it still has Za’Darius Smith, who has 2.5 sacks, and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr., who just signed a four-year, $78 million extension. Atlanta’s defense ranks eighth in EPA per play, per Sumer Sports. Shough takes a sack on 20 percent of his pressured dropbacks, which ranks 27th among quarterbacks, according to PFF. Three sacks is the expectation here.
Shough’s turnovers come down
Shough is responsible for six of the Saints’ seven giveaways, three interceptions and three lost fumbles. PFF has charged him with two turnover-worthy plays all season, which suggests the interceptions should level off. The fumbles are the part he has to fix himself. He has put the ball on the ground five times in three games.
“There’s a definite trend in the league that defenders are punching the ball out,” Shough said this week.
Moore put some of it on the coaching staff. “It’s play call, it’s play design, it’s timing of the plays, it’s when is the buzzer going off in certain situations,” he said.
One giveaway or fewer would be his cleanest game since Week 2. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET Monday on ESPN.
