There are few terms more overused in fantasy baseball than that of “bust.” Maybe “sleeper” is one of them, but we throw around the word bust with such frequency, it has mostly lost the clarity it once owned.
In this column, we will break down five busts at closer. For the sake of context, we are using the word “bust” here more as a warning to adjust your expectations. Do not count on a carbon copy 2026 fantasy baseball season from these names. But at the end of the day, would I rather have Josh Hader on my roster than whomever will be closing for the Rockies? Only on days ending in “y” and again on Sunday.
These five closer busts have identifiable red flags that we believe will keep them from matching their 2025 numbers. So here are the five closers for whom you should give an extra couple of seconds before calling their name at the draft table:
Josh Hader (Astros)
Hader’s season ended with an August shoulder injury. As a result, he finished two saves shy of his fifth consecutive 30+ save season. He will turn 32 in 2026 and has been throwing hard for years. So any arm/shoulder injury has to be a red flag.
Once affected by wildness, Hader has settled into a steady groove. But this is what gives me pause, beyond his injury — he throws a hard sinker over 50 percent of the time, yet in 2025 he yielded a career-low 21.3% ground ball rate. That is largely offset by a 12.99 K/9 mark, an elite number. He stranded 86.6% of runners a season ago, a remarkable number that will surely come down.
If you’re drafting Josh Hader as your top closer, do yourself a favor and grab a second ninth-inning guy fairly quickly afterward. Protect yourself and your fantasy baseball team.
Raisel Iglesias (Braves)
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All you need to know about Iglesias is that his team signed Robert Suárez, he of 40 saves last season, to be their setup man. Iglesias has been a reliable source of saves for some time, but his underlying skills started to fade last year. His velocity fell by almost a full mph, his ground ball output swooned in favor of balls in the air, and his swinging strike percentage continued its decline from past seasons.
Iglesias is a 36-year-old closer, so approach with necessary caution. His teammate Suárez is 35 this season, so he would be on my bust list if he were the Braves closer as well.
Aroldis Chapman (Red Sox)
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Chapman had a remarkable season in Boston in which he sliced his BB/9 rate from 5.69 to 2.20, helping him collect 32 saves. How can a closer with a 0.70 WHIP be considered a bust candidate? His ground ball rate fell from 44% to 38%, his strand rate was 88%, well above his career average of 71%. Assume the walk rate will regress in the direction of his career norms and when it does, topping 30 saves will be difficult.
But mostly, I’m cognizant of his age. Closers who are 38 years old do not often succeed, so draft Chapman if you’ve already rostered a reliable top-flight ninth-inning solution and enjoy what he provides, but continually check under the hood.
Carlos Estévez (Royals)
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Estévez led the league in saves with 42 last season, but there is not much good news beyond that. In 2023, he owned an 11.26 K/9 rate, but last year that was only 7.36. Consider also that his swinging strike rate swooned from 12.9% to 8.5%. His 2.45 ERA was more than two runs better than a 4.75 xERA. When you think of overvalued RPs in fantasy baseball, Estévez will be on that poster, front and center.
If you’re in an auction league, call his name early and let someone else spend needless money on him. Estévez is one closer I would never consider for my roster, but someone else, blinded by 42 saves, will gladly take him. Let them.
Andrés Muñoz (Mariners)
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This is the classic example of a closer “bust” not being a “do not draft” label. Muñoz earned 38 saves, but I would expect that number to naturally regress closer to 30. His 1.73 ERA surely will rise, particularly because his 5% HR/F rate was well below his career average of 11%.
After such a brilliant season, just be warned that there will be bumps in the road. If you’re prepared for that, draft him with confidence. But if you select Muñoz expecting another 38-save season, be prepared for a small-b “bust.”
How to Navigate Closer Busts in 2026
Major league bullpens are often a game of musical chairs to determine who will get ninth-inning responsibilities. The above names will surely collect a good number of saves in 2026, just not as many as you’d think.
A key to winning a fantasy baseball championship in 2026 will be to anticipate change. We will be continually monitoring the closer carousel this season and will warn you of the small cracks in the foundation before they collapse your house.
Our weekly in-season Closer Confidential columns will grade our overall confidence level of each team’s closer or committee and will give you the “next man up” options. It will not only help you anticipate changes in save distribution but can be an asset for those in leagues that use holds as well.
People Also Ask About Top Fantasy Baseball Closer Busts
Who are the top closer busts for 2026?
Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Estévez, and Andrés Muñoz carry identifiable regression or durability red flags.
Is Josh Hader safe as a top closer?
He remains elite, but shoulder concerns and unsustainably high strand rates add risk at his draft price.
Why is Carlos Estévez considered overvalued?
His strikeout decline and 2.30+ ERA gap versus xERA suggest meaningful regression behind last year’s save total.
Should I trust Aroldis Chapman at his age?
Age-38 closers rarely repeat peak efficiency, especially with elevated strand rates and walk volatility history.
Will Andrés Muñoz repeat 38 saves?
Expect closer to 30 saves as HR/F rate normalizes and durability remains a mild concern.