Top 25 Predictions: What the AP Poll Will Look Like After Week 4

Eight ranked teams went down, including one in the top five. Athlon projects the AP Top 25 a quarter of the way into the season.

by Kyle Wood

Sep 27, 2026

Eight ranked teams went down, including one in the top five. Athlon projects the AP Top 25 a quarter of the way into the season.

A stacked Week 4 college football slate lived up to its billing. There were six games between top-25 teams on deck, and they produced a statement win, three last-second finishes and one heroic save by a backup quarterback.

All told, eight ranked teams suffered losses on Saturday. No. 17 Iowa beat No. 18 Michigan 20-19 on a last-second touchdown pass. (No additional time was added for the Wolverines.) No. 1 Texas outlasted No. 14 Tennessee 20-17 despite the Volunteers’ late onside kick recovery. And No. 24 Mississippi State took down No. 19 Missouri 31-24 after a comeback led by rising star Kamario Taylor.

Those are the contests that came down to the wire. But No. 21 Florida left nothing to chance in a 52-28 coming-out party against No. 4 Ole Miss. The Gators are 4-0 for the first time since 2019 and notched their first win against a top-five team since 2020.

In the late window out West, No. 20 Oregon was in a bad place against No. 12 USC after quarterback Dante Moore left the game. Backup Dylan Raiola came to the rescue, and the Ducks left Los Angeles with a 41-27 win, their fifth in a row over the Trojans.

Texas running back Raleek Brown (0) runs against Tennessee Volunteers linebacker Amare Campbell (0) at Neyland Stadium on Sept. 26, 2026, in Knoxville, Tennessee.

The only game between two ranked teams that wasn’t close was No. 10 LSU’s 35-6 triumph over No. 23 Texas A&M. It’s a big bounce back for the Tigers, who lost to Ole Miss last week. As for the Aggies, their hopes of a playoff return are already dashed before October.

Most of the teams that went down did so against fellow ranked teams, but Wisconsin’s win over No. 13 Penn State and Wake Forest’s 30-27 victory over No. 16 Louisville were among the most shocking results of the week. There should be considerable change in the poll, including a handful of teams and perhaps the first appearance for a Group of 6 team.

The next Top 25 will be released on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. Here’s Athlon Sports’ projection for the AP Top 25 after Week 4.