Before the opening round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament started, TNT Sports revealed which teams have the best chances of cutting down the nets in April.
The Duke Blue Devils are currently the odds-on favorite to win the national championship, but the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines aren't far behind them. In fact, those three programs are heavy favorites to reach the Final Fours.
© Bob Donnan-Imagn Images.
With that being said, TNT used these several historical trends to determine the true contenders this March:
- No champion has ever lost three of its last four games before entering the tournament.
- No champion has ever endured a five-game losing streak.
- No champion was unranked in AP poll for entire season.
- No champion lost before the semifinals in their conference tournament.
- No champions were seeded 9-16.
- The last 24 champions enjoyed a six-game winning streak during the season.
- 30 of the last 31 champions didn't suffer a 25-point loss
- The last 20 champions were in the top 12 of Week 6 AP poll.
After you factor in all of those requirements, the only teams that "can win" this year's tournament are Arizona, Duke, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue and UConn.
There might only be 5 contenders.
It's worth noting that 17 of the last 18 national champions have been either No. 1 seeds or UConn. The only team that broke the mold was No. 2 Villanova during the 2016 NCAA Tournament.
Suffice to say, your bracket should have a No. 1 seed making a deep run this March. If not, you might be in serious trouble.
