Oddsmakers looked at two winless teams and decided one of them was a touchdown better than the other. The Tennessee Titans are the other. Houston is a 7-point favorite for Sunday’s game at Nissan Stadium, even though the Texans are 0-4 as well.
The line is a fair summary of the first month. Tennessee averages 13.8 points per game, which ranks 31st, and has now dropped four in a row under first-year coach Robert Saleh. The matchup itself has been a punchline all week. A meme account suggested flexing it to The Weather Channel, and the network played along.
Why the Titans are home underdogs to the winless Texans
It starts at quarterback. Cam Ward has thrown for 726 yards, three touchdown passes and two interceptions in four games. He ranks 24th of 36 quarterbacks in PFF’s overall grade at 63.1, and his average depth of target is 6.9 yards, which ranks 29th. His best outing came Sunday in Baltimore, where he earned an 81.3 passing grade, according to PFF, and rookie Carnell Tate caught nine passes for 145 yards.
Finishing has been the other problem. Three of the four losses were by six points or fewer. Against the Ravens, Tennessee handed off to Tony Pollard four straight times at the goal line and was stopped on fourth down from the 2-yard line.
The defense has held up its end. It allows 20.8 points per game, ninth in the league, and Jeffery Simmons ranks seventh among interior defenders with an 80.3 PFF grade and leads the position with 11 stops. The concern is the matchup. C.J. Stroud has 1,141 passing yards and no interceptions, Nico Collins had 118 yards and two touchdowns in his return last week, and Titans cornerback Alontae Taylor has allowed 15 catches on 18 targets with a 31.5 coverage grade, according to PFF.
History leans Houston’s way, too. The Texans have won three straight in the series, including a 26-0 shutout last season. Tennessee can point to close losses and a young quarterback as reasons for patience. A home loss as a touchdown underdog to another winless team would be much harder to explain. Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
