A quarter of the way through the season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still looking for a win. They have lost four games by a combined 20 points, lost Baker Mayfield to a dislocated right thumb along the way and turned to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels.
There is something to work with, mostly on defense. The list of things that have to change is longer. “We can’t keep getting close and not winning,” coach Todd Bowles said after Sunday’s loss to Green Bay, via the team’s website.
Positive: The run defense is among the NFL’s best
Opponents have run 98 times for 314 yards, an average of 3.2 per carry, and nobody has topped 106 yards on the ground. Through Sunday’s games, Tampa Bay ranked third in rushing yards allowed and fourth in total yards allowed, per Pro Football Reference.
Safety Tykee Smith has a 92.5 run-defense grade, defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson is at 88.8 and Antoine Winfield Jr. is at 87.9, according to PFF. Those are the three best marks on the team.
Positive: Chase McLaughlin hasn’t missed
McLaughlin is 9-for-9 on field goals and 7-for-7 on extra points. Three of the makes came from 50 yards or longer, including a 59-yarder against Cleveland and a 54-yarder that pulled the Bucs within a point of Minnesota in the fourth quarter. He has scored 34 of the team’s 76 points. Every Tampa Bay game has been decided by one score, and the kicker has not been the reason any of them got away.
Positive: The NFC South is still within reach
All four losses came by seven points or fewer, and none of them came inside the division. Carolina leads the NFC South at 2-2, and no team in the division has a winning record. Atlanta and New Orleans were both 1-2 entering Monday night’s game against each other.
That leaves Tampa Bay two games back and still alive in the division, with all six NFC South games left to play. The first is Oct. 25 at Carolina.
Negative: Bucs quarterbacks have been sacked 16 times
Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Mayfield was sacked 13 times in three games before the thumb injury, six of them by Minnesota, and Daniels went down three more times against the Packers.
The tackles have held up. Tristan Wirfs has an 87.5 pass-blocking grade and Luke Goedeke a 76.1, according to PFF. The trouble has come elsewhere. Tight end Cade Otton has a 20.0 pass-blocking grade, and running backs Kenneth Gainwell (28.6) and Bucky Irving (33.7) have struggled in protection.
Negative: Nine giveaways and a minus-5 turnover margin
Tampa Bay has turned the ball over nine times and taken it away four. It started in the opener, when the Bucs lost four fumbles in a six-point loss at Cincinnati and one was returned for a touchdown.
Daniels has thrown three interceptions in 30 attempts, and the two in his first start led to 10 Green Bay points in a three-point loss. The Bucs have not won the turnover battle in any game.
Negative: The offense has six touchdowns in four games
The Bucs have scored 76 points, and seven of those came on Josiah Trotter’s interception return in Week 1. The offense has reached the end zone six times and settled for nine field goals. Sean Tucker, who scored Sunday, did not have a carry in the first three games.
No Tampa Bay offensive player has a season grade above 70, according to PFF. Chris Godwin leads the unit at 69.5, and Mayfield is at 58.9.
Negative: The pass rush isn’t finishing
Tampa Bay has six sacks in four games and didn’t get one against Green Bay. PFF credits the defense with 51 pressures, but Yaya Diaby has seven pressures without a sack and Calijah Kancey has eight without one. First-round pick Rueben Bain Jr. has two pressures and a 38.7 grade in 76 snaps over two games.
The Bucs entered Week 4 with the second-lowest pressure rate in the league, per Sharp Football Analysis.
Daniels is expected to start again Thursday night at Dallas. Mayfield was listed as a non-participant on Monday’s injury report.
