Tuesday marked the end of the second leg of the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. All teams now have one game to play, and the recent results have somewhat changed the United States men's national team's (USMNT) path to the Final.
With their win over Australia on Friday and Turkey's subsequent loss to Paraguay, the USMNT clinched the top spot in Group D. They will now face an undetermined third-place team in one of five groups depending on which teams qualify.
For the better part of a week, projections have shown Bosnia & Herzegovina as the most likely team that the USMNT would play in the Round of 32. However, recent results have Bosnia & Herzegovina on the outside looking in.
A New Challenger
According to Sky Sports, if the Group Stage were to end today, the United States would actually begin the Round of 32 against Algeria, who currently sit in third place in Group J after beating Jordan on Monday.
Algeria would be a significantly more difficult opponent for the USMNT than Bosnia & Herzegovina. They're one of the top teams in Africa and ranked No. 28 in the World right now - one rank below Australia. By contrast, Bosnia & Herzegovina is ranked No. 64 in the World.
While sports books would probably still give the edge to the USMNT, it would be a bigger challenge.
© Steven Bisig-Imagn Images.
Should the United States take down Algeria, they would then have to head back to Seattle to take on the winner of what is currently a matchup between Egypt and Czechia. Egypt is ranked 29th in the world while Czechia is ranked 40th.
Surviving that, the United States would qualify for the quarterfinals for just the third time in history. At that point, the quality of opposition would REALLY ramp up. They would most likely have to face one of either Spain (2), Portugal (5), Ghana (73) or Austria (24) - most likely Spain.
But, as these last two weeks of World Cup action have shown, matchups don't play out on paper - they're played out on the field. If Cape Verde can hold Spain to a scoreless draw, anything is possible.
Do you want the USMNT to take the hardest path to the Final, or the easiest?
