The Houston Texans have their defense, which is the foundation behind the betting argument. They can win games without asking their offense to score 30 every Sunday. C.J. Stroud is thus allowed a margin of error.
The Texans went 12-5 in 2025, finished second in the AFC South and reached the AFC Divisional Round after crushing the Steelers 30-6 in the Wild Card Round. During all this, their defense allowed just 295 points, second-fewest in the NFL.
DeMeco Ryans has legitimate pieces on every level of the defense. CBS Sports is comfortable taking Houston over 9.5 wins even with questions around their offense and Stroud. Will Anderson Jr. became the Texans’ defensive centrepiece when he recorded 12 sacks in 2025. Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Azeez Al-Shaair and Calen Bullock are the other pillars of the Texans defense.
Last year, Stroud started 14 games and completed 273 of 423 passes for 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His 92.9 passer rating was solid, but the overall production was a step down from the expectations he created in his rookie season. Regarding his playoff performance, Stroud committed four turnovers in the Divisional Round game against the Patriots and in his two-game postseason total reached seven turnovers.
That’s why the 2026 season feels like an important reset for both Stroud and Houston.
The Stroud Contract Could Become Houston’s Biggest Question
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The Texans and Stroud are talking, but there is a deadline. General manager Nick Caserio said the Texans and Stroud’s agent David Mulugheta, have had productive discussions about an extension. But here’s the twist; if there is no deal before Houston’s September 13 opener against the Bills, negotiations will pause until after the season.
Stroud is simply demanding more money, as the quarterback market keeps moving upward. Top quarterback contracts have already reached above $60 million per year, giving Stroud a clear benchmark for negotiations.
If Houston wants certainty, the 2026 season can provide it. Stroud has a chance to answer the biggest criticisms surrounding him by producing more consistently and taking better care of the football. The Texans, meanwhile, can use their defense to stay competitive while giving him room to recover his best form.
