DeMeco Ryans got the win he needed in Nashville. Now the Texans face a first-place opponent on a neutral field nearly 5,000 miles from NRG Stadium, with a new receiver for C.J. Stroud still learning the playbook. Jacksonville is 4-1 and has allowed just 70 points all season.
Here’s how the matchup breaks down on both sides of the ball, and where it lands.
When the Texans have the ball
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Stroud has been sharp, with 1,402 passing yards, six touchdown passes and no interceptions. His protection is the issue. He’s been sacked 14 times, and the focus on the offensive line hasn’t let up even after the win. Without David Montgomery, Woody Marks gets the early-down work after a 15-carry, 62-yard day last week, but Houston is averaging 3.4 yards per carry as a team.
Nico Collins is the key. He has three touchdowns in three games and an 85.4 PFF grade, and the Jaguars’ secondary is missing Montaric Brown. Expect Houston to move the ball between the 20s and stall a couple of times inside them. Jacksonville has allowed touchdowns on just five of 15 red-zone trips.
When the Jaguars have the ball
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Trevor Lawrence has been efficient at 8.2 yards per attempt with 10 touchdown passes, and Parker Washington has four touchdowns. What Houston can do is take away the run. The Texans allow 78.4 rushing yards per game, third in the league, and Bhayshul Tuten managed 72 yards on 22 carries last week.
That puts the game on Lawrence’s arm against a pass rush with 18 sacks, and the Danielle Hunter side of that rush showed up in Nashville too. Liam Coen said his group expects a physical game. “This is going to be a test of physical strain, fight, and that’s what it’s going to be,” Coen said, per the Jaguars’ website.
Score prediction: Jaguars 23, Texans 20
This one feels like the last several in the series, tight into the fourth quarter. Houston’s defense keeps it close and Stroud keeps the ball out of harm’s way, but the Jaguars convert 45.9% of their third downs and finish one more drive with a touchdown. A late field goal decides it. Houston has turned 10 of 18 red-zone trips into touchdowns, and it needs that rate to hold against a defense allowing touchdowns on a third of its red-zone trips. The projected Texans starting lineup has enough to win this game, but Jacksonville’s edge on third down tips it.
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