One statistic tells you almost nothing and can easily deceive you. Two stats together? That’s teamwork and, more importantly, context.
Take xERA and Stuff+. We write a lot here about the ERA/xERA gaps in a pitcher’s statline. The xERA tells you how hard hitters are hitting the ball against a pitcher. Stuff+ tells you how good the pitcher's pitches actually are. When both metrics say the same thing, the case for buying or selling is twice as strong as either metric alone. Three pitchers currently have bad raw stuff and an ERA that their underlying numbers cannot explain. Two others have elite raw stuff and an ERA that dramatically understates how well they are pitching. That is the full board. Start with the sells.
Quick context: Athlon flagged the ERA-xERA gap framework in June 5 and June 19 pieces. This is the June-end update with Stuff+ added. The Stuff+ layer makes the sell cases cleaner and adds two buy cases that prior pieces missed entirely.
The Three Sells
McGreevy First, Because He Is the Most Urgent
Michael McGreevy, Cardinals. ERA 3.12. xERA 5.58. Stuff+ 81.
The June 19 piece flagged McGreevy at a 2.99 ERA. It is now 3.12. The regression has started. It tends to arrive this way for pitchers at this profile: gradually, one bad start absorbed by the strand rate, then another, then a third. His LOB% is 83.3 percent. League average is around 72 percent. That 11-point cushion is disappearing.
His Stuff+ of 81 is in the bottom fifth of qualified starters. His SwStr% is 7.5 percent. His Barrel% is 9.0 percent and his HardHit% is 40.1 percent. There is no raw-pitch quality underneath waiting to stabilize the ERA when the luck finishes normalizing. He is a 5.58-xERA pitcher who has been managing contact well for three months. That stops. Sell him now at 3.12 while the ERA still looks like an asset.
Urgency: sell immediately, ahead of everyone else who is watching the same strand rate.
Martin Perez, Braves. ERA 3.27. xERA 4.34. Stuff+ 87.
Perez has 77 innings of a 3.27 ERA and a Stuff+ of 87. At 35 years old with a 6.29 K/9, he is surviving on location and sequencing, not pitch quality. His xERA of 4.34 says the contact profile already reflects a league-average-or-worse pitcher. His Stuff+ says there is no arsenal quality to rescue him when the surface results follow. With such a low K rate, he could still be unowned in your league. Keep it that way. If you do own him, trade him while the ERA is still in the low 3s.
Urgency: sell before July turns the xERA into the ERA.
Reynaldo Lopez, Braves. ERA 3.47. xERA 4.85. Stuff+ 90.
Lopez has the largest xERA gap of the three at 1.38 runs, but his Stuff+ of 90 is the closest to league average, making this the mildest sell. He is still a sell. Average-minus stuff combined with a 4.85 xERA gives him no structural reason to hold a 3.47 ERA into the second half. His BABIP is .278 and his LOB% is 76 percent, both with room to move against him. Sell him.
Urgency: sell, but lower priority than McGreevy.
The One Clean Buy and the One Conditional Buy
John Jones-Imagn Images
Alvarado Is the Obvious Buy. Munoz Requires One Confirmation First.
Jose Alvarado, Phillies. ERA 5.70. xERA 3.57. Stuff+ 120.
The ERA is 5.70. The xERA is 3.57. That 2.13-run gap in the right direction means the contact Alvarado is generating is far better than the runs he has allowed. Stuff+ 120 is 20 points above league average. His arsenal is elite.
The ERA is high because his LOB% is 66.9 percent, meaning runners are scoring at an above-average rate when they reach base. That is a timing problem, not a stuff problem. The stuff is real, the xERA is real, and the 5.70 ERA is a sequencing artifact that will correct. He is a setup arm for the Phillies behind Jhoan Duran, not the closer, so account for that in saves formats. In ERA and strikeout formats he is the clearest buy on this board.
Buy. Both metrics say the ERA is wrong.
Andres Munoz, Mariners. ERA 4.75. xERA 3.84. Stuff+ 116.
The underlying numbers are excellent. SwStr% of 18.6 percent, K-BB% of 25.8 percent, Stuff+ of 116, xERA of 3.84. His BABIP of .328 is the primary ERA driver and it will come down. When it does, his ERA follows his xERA.
The reason this is conditional: Munoz has converted just two of his last five save chances and he is on the hot seat as the Seattle stopper. A reliever with a Stuff+ of 116 and a correcting ERA is a strong asset as the closer. He is a much weaker one in setup. Before you acquire him, confirm his role is secure in Seattle. If it is, buy him with the same conviction as Alvarado. If it is not, wait two weeks for clarity.
Conditional buy. Confirm closer role first, then act.
Why Adding Stuff+ Makes These Cases Cleaner
Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
A pitcher with a 5.58 xERA and a Stuff+ of 115 is a sell, but a complicated one. Maybe the raw talent finds a way to suppress the regression. McGreevy at Stuff+ 81 is not complicated. The talent is not there to absorb the correction. When the luck runs out, the ERA goes to 5.58 and stays there.
The buy side works the same way. Any pitcher with a good xERA and a bad ERA is a generic ERA-based buy candidate. Alvarado and Munoz have Stuff+ grades in the top tier confirming the underlying quality is real. That makes the ERA normalization more likely, not just possible.
The combined screen is simple: find pitchers where Stuff+ and xERA tell the same story, then act on the trade. McGreevy is the most unambiguous sell in this data. Alvarado is the most unambiguous buy. Both cases are clean. Use them before the rest of your league catches up.
All figures from FanGraphs through June 30, 2026. Stuff+ from Baseball Savant, updated weekly. Verify all grades at time of publication.
Questions About Stuff+ ... And Answers+
Why is Michael McGreevy a sell-high in fantasy baseball right now?
McGreevy has a Stuff+ of 81, placing him in the bottom fifth of qualified starters for raw pitch quality, paired with a 3.12 ERA that his 5.58 xERA and 83.3 percent LOB% cannot support. He was flagged at 2.99 ERA eleven days ago and the regression has already started; sell him before it accelerates.
What is Stuff+ and why does it matter for fantasy baseball pitcher evaluation?
Stuff+ grades a pitcher's raw arsenal quality on velocity, movement, and spin, calibrated to 100 as league average, independent of results. When Stuff+ is low and xERA is high simultaneously, the sell case is double-confirmed; when Stuff+ is elite and ERA is well above xERA, the buy case is double-confirmed.
Are Martin Perez and Reynaldo Lopez sell-high candidates in fantasy baseball?
Yes. Perez (Stuff+ 87, ERA 3.27, xERA 4.34) and Lopez (Stuff+ 90, ERA 3.47, xERA 4.85) both combine below-average raw stuff with surface ERAs the underlying contact quality cannot sustain. Neither appeared in prior Athlon ERA-xERA pieces, making them fresh sell opportunities while the ERA still reads as tradeable.
Why is Jose Alvarado a buy-low target despite a 5.70 ERA?
Alvarado's xERA is 3.57 and his Stuff+ is 120, meaning his pitch arsenal is elite and the contact quality he is generating is dramatically better than the runs he has allowed. His LOB% of 66.9 percent is the primary ERA driver and will normalize toward league average, pulling the ERA down with it.
Should I buy Andres Munoz in fantasy baseball right now?
Munoz's Stuff+ of 116, SwStr% of 18.6 percent, and xERA of 3.84 against a 4.75 ERA make him a strong buy candidate on the underlying numbers alone. The condition is confirming his closer role is secure in Seattle first, because he has converted just two of his last five save chances and a role change would erase most of his fantasy value regardless of what the metrics say.
What is the difference between xERA and Stuff+ in pitcher evaluation?
xERA measures the quality of contact a pitcher allows, telling you what ERA the batted-ball data says he deserves. Stuff+ measures the quality of the pitches themselves, independent of results, telling you whether the underlying tools can sustain or improve on that contact quality going forward.
How do you use Stuff+ and xERA together to find sell-high pitchers?
Identify pitchers whose ERA is significantly below their xERA, then check whether their Stuff+ is below 95. If both metrics point the same direction, the sell case has two independent supporting pillars rather than one, and the ERA correction is more likely to be permanent than temporary.
