When the Pittsburgh Steelers take the field Sunday, they will make history by playing in the NFL’s first game in Paris. However, their matchup against the New Orleans Saints also presents a significant opportunity under head coach Mike McCarthy: take a major step forward in the early playoff picture. It may only be Week 7, but plenty is at stake as the Steelers look to improve to 5-2 and gain valuable ground in the postseason race.
With a particularly challenging schedule awaiting them in the second half of the season, including multiple playoff-caliber opponents, these early games carry added importance. The Steelers have winnable matchups in each of the next two weeks, but that doesn’t mean either game will be easy. As Pittsburgh saw in Tampa Bay, opponents won’t simply roll over because the Steelers have postseason aspirations. Still, Pittsburgh can’t afford to overlook either opportunity as it looks to build momentum before its bye week.
A Win in Week 7 Skyrockets Steelers’ Early Playoff Odds
CalculatorScore offers a tool that estimates NFL teams’ playoff probabilities based on historical records and results. Specifically, it examines how often teams with a particular record have qualified for the postseason. If the Steelers win Sunday and improve to 5-2, Pittsburgh would have an 80.67% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to the tool. That figure reflects the 121 teams out of 150 since 2002 that started 5-2 and eventually qualified for the postseason under the current playoff format.
That historical trend highlights just how important a strong start can be, especially with Pittsburgh’s difficult second-half schedule looming. If the Steelers improve to 6-2, their playoff probability could climb to nearly 90%.
It’s worth noting that these calculations don’t account for variables such as upcoming opponents, current division standings or the rest of the conference standings. However, they provide a useful historical benchmark for understanding how often teams with a 5-2 start have reached the postseason.
A Loss in Week 7 Creates a Massive Hole
Ken Blaze - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
What happens if the Steelers can’t get the job done in Paris? If Pittsburgh falls to 4-3, its historical playoff probability drops sharply to 57%. That figure is based on 90 of the 158 teams that started with the same record and eventually made the postseason.
The Steelers would much rather enter the next stretch of the season with playoff odds above 80% than see them fall closer to the 50% range. A loss wouldn’t end Pittsburgh’s postseason hopes, but it would make the road ahead more difficult.
If the Steelers lose their next two games, their playoff probability would drop further to 37.23%, based on the 51 of 137 teams that started 4-4 and eventually reached the playoffs. Those numbers don’t guarantee a disappointing outcome if Pittsburgh loses one or both games. Instead, they put the importance of these early-season matchups into perspective.
The Steelers have an opportunity to build a strong foundation for a playoff run before facing a more demanding stretch of their schedule. Can McCarthy’s team take advantage of its next two games and head into the bye week with momentum?
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