Fantasy managers with an Indianapolis Colts receiver on the roster have one question this morning: Is this finally Josh Downs’ week? Tyler Warren (groin) and Anthony Gould (concussion) are both out, and the Colts walk into a loud U.S. Bank Stadium against a 5-0 Minnesota team that almost nobody expects them to beat.
Our answer is to sit him in 12-team PPR leagues unless you’re stuck for a flex. Expect four or five catches and between 6 and 10 PPR points, with a touchdown as the only path to more.
Josh Downs’ role without Tyler Warren
Downs has 24 catches on 42 targets for 289 yards and no touchdowns this season, per Pro Football Reference. He’s run 217 routes, 29th among receivers, and carries a 71.5 receiving grade at PFF. The yards after the catch haven’t been there. He’s averaging 3.9 per reception, 69th at the position.
The trend is the problem. Downs caught seven passes at Kansas City in Week 2 and hasn’t had more than five in a game since. Warren sat in Week 6, and the extra looks went to Keenan Allen, who drew 11 targets against Tennessee while Downs caught four of eight for 40 yards. FantasyPros’ expert consensus ranks Downs WR38 in PPR this week with a 7.8-point projection, and that feels right.
Byron Murphy Jr. is the cornerback to know. He leads all corners with three interceptions and has allowed a 57.3 passer rating, per PFF. The softer spot is safety Josh Metellus, who has a 33.4 coverage grade and has allowed a 145.8 passer rating in coverage. Blake Cashman (the most consistent player on this defense) has a 60.0 coverage grade, so the middle of the field can open up when Downs finds it.
Where the Colts can move the ball
Brian Flores has blitzed on 77.8% of Minnesota’s defensive plays, the highest rate in the NFL, per Colts.com. That can work for a slot receiver on quick throws, but it also puts Daniel Jones in a bind. Minnesota has 17 sacks and allows a league-low 12.8 points per game.
“Looking at their defense, they’re the best in the business right now,” Colts head coach Shane Steichen said this week.
Running the ball won’t take much pressure off. Jalen Redmond has a 90.9 run-defense grade, first among 130 interior defenders at PFF, and the Vikings allow 4.0 yards per carry. We broke down that matchup for Jonathan Taylor this morning.
Game script helps a little. Minnesota is a 6.5-point favorite with a 41.5 total, and the Colts’ team total is 16.5. Trailing means volume, which is why we like Downs over 4.5 receptions as a prop. It doesn’t mean many points for anyone in blue.
Josh Downs Week 7 verdict
Sit Downs if you have a comparable option. He’s a reasonable PPR flex in deeper leagues, but there’s plenty here that should scare the Colts, and a range of 6 to 10 PPR points doesn’t justify the start.
More on the Indianapolis Colts
- 3 Best Colts Player Prop Bets for Week 7 at Vikings: Daniel Jones Throws Into the Blitz
- Final Injury Report for Colts-Vikings: Will Justin Jefferson, Tyler Warren Play?
- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 7
- Just 2 of 24 NFL Experts Back the Colts Against the Unbeaten Vikings in Week 7
