Three wins in four games would normally leave a defending Super Bowl champion in a comfortable spot. The Seattle Seahawks are learning the NFC West doesn’t work that way this year. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Seattle a 73 percent chance to make the playoffs after Sunday’s 30-23 win over the Chargers, which sounds fine until the rest of the table comes into view.
Seattle sits sixth in the NFC on ESPN’s list, one spot behind the Los Angeles Rams, who are 2-2 and check in at 74 percent. The model gives the Seahawks only a 13 percent chance to win the division.
Why the 49ers game carries so much weight
The San Francisco 49ers are the reason. They’re 4-0, hold a 99 percent chance to reach the postseason and are a 79 percent bet to take the West. That leaves the wild card as Seattle’s most likely path, at 60 percent, and it makes Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff against San Francisco at Lumen Field the biggest game on the early schedule. A win pulls the Seahawks even at 4-1 with the head-to-head edge. A loss drops them two games back before a short-week trip to Denver and a home date with the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs.
Seattle will have to play cleaner to get it. The Seahawks were flagged 14 times for a franchise-record 150 yards against the Chargers, and seven were personal fouls. “To have seven personal foul penalties is unacceptable on any level, however you slice it,” head coach Mike Macdonald said, per Fox 13 Seattle.
The defense kept that from costing them. Seattle forced four takeaways Sunday and has 87 pressures through four games, according to PFF, with Leonard Williams leading the team at 15. Williams hurt his ankle late in the game, but Macdonald said afterward that it doesn’t look serious.
The backfield is thinner, with rookie Jadarian Price on injured reserve and Joe Mixon added as depth on the practice squad. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who owns a 92.0 offensive grade per PFF, remains the constant on offense. If the Seahawks beat the 49ers, that 13 percent division number should look very different by next week.
