Who Dat fans making the trip to East Rutherford will see a Saints team trying to stop a three-game slide against a Giants team that hasn’t lost since Jameis Winston took over. Turnovers have put the season on Tyler Shough’s shoulders, and Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX is a chance for him to respond.
Most national experts like the Giants here, and the numbers explain why. New York is 3-0 against the spread at home, according to SI’s preview, and has six interceptions to go with a plus-1 turnover margin.
When the Saints have the ball
Shough has thrown for 1,299 yards and nine touchdown passes, but the offense produced just 142 total yards against Minnesota. Kellen Moore has already said he needs more play action. “I’ve got to do a better job with that, because obviously there’s value in it and we’ve had success in it,” Moore told WWL earlier this week.
That matters against a Giants defense that reworked its pass rush after early struggles and now blitzes constantly. Shough’s 74.6 overall grade ranks 12th among quarterbacks, according to PFF, and Chris Olave gives him a true No. 1 target. The running game has been the problem, averaging 81.8 yards per game with Travis Etienne Jr. on injured reserve.
When the Giants have the ball
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Winston threw for 326 yards and three touchdown passes in the tie at Washington, and Isaiah Likely has been fighting to get on the same page with him. Likely has 33 catches, and the Saints have allowed 36 receptions to tight ends, tied for third-most in the league.
Brandon Staley’s defense ranks 31st in points allowed, and his play-calling role has been questioned. The Saints’ best shot is the pass rush. Chase Young has four sacks, and Winston’s early struggles were enough for Matt Nagy to defend him publicly. Winston also knows this opponent well from his time in New Orleans, and the Saints pass rush gets its chance to test him on early downs.
Score prediction: Giants 24, Saints 21
This should be closer than the last three Saints losses, all decided by at least eight points. Shough throws for about 250 yards and two touchdown passes, and Olave tops 90 yards, but one more turnover is the difference. Shough said after the Vikings game, “Just a missed throw. It was a critical mistake,” about his first interception. New Orleans can’t afford another one at MetLife, and the guess here is that it gets one too many.
More on the New Orleans Saints
- Final Injury Report for Saints-Giants: Will Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara Play?
- New Orleans Saints at New York Giants NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 6
- 3 Reasons the Saints Will Beat the Giants, and 2 Reasons They Won’t
- Tyler Shough vs. Giants Week 6: Four Expectations for Saints QB
