The Boston Red Sox spent the winter rebuilding and strengthening their starting pitcher depth. They signed free agent Ranger Suarez and traded for Sonny Gray, which created a strong front four with Brayan Bello and staff ace Garrett Crochet. For the fifth starter slot they traded for Johan Oviedo, which set up a competition with left-handed pitching prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle.
The competition was fierce, pitting Oviedo’s major league experience against Early and Tolle’s electric stuff and prospect hype. Now that spring training is over, a plan has been developed for the back end of the Red Sox starting rotation. Oviedo, the early favorite to win the job, has been told he’ll break camp with the Sox. Tolle will be sent to the Woo Sox, the Red Sox’ Triple-A affiliate, but Early will also be on the Opening Day roster. What is the team’s plan for the fifth starter, and do fantasy managers have anything to gain from either drafting or plucking Oviedo and/or Early off the waiver wire?
The Spring Training Battle
Early, Tolle, and Oviedo All Impress in Florida
Connelly Early |
17 |
16 |
1.59 |
0.94 |
23.5% |
7.40% |
Payton Tolle |
10.2 |
13 |
2.53 |
0.84 |
30.2% |
2.30% |
Johan Oviedo |
14.2 |
17 |
4.91 |
1.50 |
25.8% |
12.1% |
Spring training statistics are skewed because of the small sample size and the number of minor leaguers that pitchers end up facing. Still, the numbers from this trio of pitchers tell the story about where they’re at in terms of preparation for the regular season. Both Tolle and Early continued to show flashes of the dominance they exhibited last fall when the Red Sox leaned on them to provide important innings down the final stretch of the pennant race and into the postseason. Early’s fastball velocity rose to an average of 95 MPH and he’s effectively integrated a slider into his repertoire, a pitch he’s been working on for close to a year.
Oviedo worked on his fastball command, looking to pound the zone more and cut down on his walk rate, which hit a career-high 13.5% in 2025. That wasn’t particularly surprising, though. He returned to the mound in mid-season last year after missing all of the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His fastball velocity dropped into the 92-93 MPH range after sitting close to 96 earlier this spring. This was a factor in the team’s decision about how to best deploy these pitchers as the season gets underway.
Organizational Decision Factors
Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey referenced a clear set of goals for each pitcher. Besides all the individual goals, Bailey has other concrete reasons for assigning Tolle to the minors and keeping both Early and Oviedo in Boston. Tolle will be part of the starting rotation at Triple-A, so his innings and pitch counts will be monitored closely to build him up slowly then to manage his usage throughout the season.
Early will be in regular rotation with the other four primary starters. However, all five pitchers will get regular opportunities for extra rest. They will get “extra” time off whenever the schedule allows. Despite being assigned to the bullpen, you can expect Oviedo to be used in a variety of multi-inning situations. For instance, Suarez pitched very little in the World Baseball Classic, which clearly disrupted his schedule to ramp up for the regular season. Instead of sending Suarez to the minors to ramp up, the Red Sox will do it on the fly, using Oviedo as a “piggyback” or bulk reliever after Suarez gets his work in.
Oviedo could also be used as a spot starter or an opener at any point in the season. He can also be plugged into the starting rotation at any time, with the pitcher he “replaces” given some extra time off. In this way, Oviedo will be pitching important innings for the Sox throughout the seasons, while still giving other starters some time off between their own important outings.
Breaking Down the Roles and Fantasy Strategy
Johan Oviedo: The Experienced Veteran
Oviedo missed all of 2024 and half of the 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. It really shouldn’t be surprising that his velocity returned last year (and then some!) but his command is still a work in progress. In some ways it was unrealistic to expect Oviedo to step right into the starting rotation in Boston after just 40 innings at the end of 2025. Given some time and coaching to fully regain his delivery and command, Oviedo could end up being a valuable starting pitcher in fantasy some time later in the season. For now, he isn’t worth a draft pick and is best left on the waiver wire until his role and usage becomes well defined.
Payton Tolle: Deep League Value
Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Tolle isn’t far from the big leagues at all. In some ways he is a more developed pitcher than Early. He throws a four-seam fastball that averages 97 MPH and mixes in cutters, sliders, and a curve - all nearly untouchable. Tolle needs to work on his command to bring down his 10.8% walk rate, and his pitch sequencing to put hitters away when he gets ahead in the count. He’s got nothing left to prove in the minors; he’s a breakout just waiting to happen. It could be later this season or early in 2027. Keep a close eye on him and pick him up as soon as the Sox promote him.
Connelly Early: The Rookie Upstart
One thing that is clear about the Red Sox is their intention to play meaningful games in October. The team absolutely sees Early as one of the keys to reaching that goal. Early was one of the main reasons the Sox made it as far into the postseason as they did in 2025. He made four regular season starts, pitching 19.1 innings with 29 strikeouts, a 2.33 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP. Early has already shown that he has the poise and stuff to pitch high leverage innings in a postseason setting. The team will absolutely look to monitor and limit his regular season innings in order to preserve his arm for October. Still, he is worth drafting or adding off the waiver wire for his strikeout potential along with strong ratio statistics.
Want To Know More About The Fifth Starter For The Red Sox?
Who is the Red Sox fifth starter in 2026?
Johan Oviedo is the frontrunner to break camp over Connelly Early and Payton Tolle.
Is Johan Oviedo fantasy relevant in 2026?
Yes, solid floor with strikeouts and wins in the strong Red Sox lineup.
What is Connelly Early’s fantasy value?
High-upside in-season call-up candidate with electric stuff.
Will Payton Tolle make the Red Sox roster?
Likely starts in Triple-A but long-term stash option.
Are the Red Sox using a six-man rotation in 2026?
No plans announced; five-man expected with depth in Triple-A.
Should I draft Johan Oviedo in fantasy baseball?
Yes for immediate production while monitoring the battle.
