Puka Nacua Likely Out for Rams vs. Broncos, and an ESPN Analyst Smells an Upset

Pamela Maldonado likes Pat Surtain II on Davante Adams and Denver's pass rush, but Matthew Stafford just threw four touchdowns without Nacua against the Giants.

by Neal Coolong

Sep 26, 2026

Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) gestures after a play in the third quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Empower Field at Mile High.

Isaiah J&period; Downing-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Rams are likely heading into Sunday Night Football without Puka Nacua, and at least one ESPN analyst thinks that opens the door for Denver. Nacua is listed as doubtful with a groin issue after sitting out practice all week, and Rams head coach Sean McVay didn’t exactly sound optimistic Friday.

“I think doubtful means it’s more unlikely than likely to play,” McVay said. Barring a setback, McVay expects Nacua to be ready for next week’s game against the Eagles, which gives the Rams little reason to push it Sunday. That’s where ESPN betting analyst Pamela Maldonado comes in. She took the Denver Broncos as 2.5-point home underdogs in her Week 3 upset picks.

Why Maldonado trusts Denver’s defense

Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II (2) gestures after a play in the third quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Empower Field at Mile High.

Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

“Denver has the defensive formula to win this,” Maldonado wrote. Her logic is simple. Without Nacua, cornerback Pat Surtain II can shadow Davante Adams all night. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ pass rush gets a crack at a Rams offensive line she called vulnerable, which could keep Matthew Stafford from settling in.

There is a catch. Stafford found plenty of rhythm without Nacua last week, completing 22 of 31 passes for 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 28-6 win over the Giants. Adams did most of the damage with eight catches for 195 yards and two scores. The Rams have already shown they can win without their All-Pro receiver. Doing it on the road against a defense built like Denver’s is a different ask.

The Broncos’ offense has its own questions. Denver managed just 176 total yards in its Week 1 loss to Kansas City and needed 17 unanswered points to rally past Jacksonville 20-13 last week. Head coach Sean Payton has been preaching faster starts, and Maldonado thinks the answer is Bo Nix using quick throws to find Jaylen Waddle and staying out of long third downs. That matters, since a Rams pass rush with Aaron Donald back in the lineup is built to punish a quarterback who holds the ball.

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. If Nacua sits and Surtain wins his matchup, Maldonado’s plus-money pick could look awfully smart by the end of Sunday night.