Oklahoma Football: 5 Bold Predictions for the Sooners in 2026

Flashback to last August, and everything felt different for Oklahoma. Head coach Brent Venables was entering hot-seat territory. The Sooners were breaking in a new quarterback-offensive coordinator combo with John Mateer and Ben Arbuckle. The defense was expected to be stellar — as Venables-led groups usually are — but questions persisted about the viability of the offense.

Months later, the Sooners shut up the skeptics after a frenetic start and strong close to the regular season. Then everything came crashing down after a blown 17-point lead to Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama in the College Football Playoff first round.

This fall, the Sooners are out to prove the 2025 regular season wasn’t a flash in the pan, but rather the expectation moving forward. Mateer is back at 100% and tasked with running a more efficient offense. Transfer receivers Trell Harris (Virginia) and Parker Livingstone (Texas) should help in that regard. The defense should be fearsome once again. But the Sooners play a brutal schedule and might have a hard time making it back to the College Football Playoff.

Here are five bold predictions for Oklahoma in 2026.

5 Bold Predictions for Oklahoma for the 2026 College Football Season

Oklahoma Will Not Make the 2026 College Football Playoff

Despite the crash-and-burn result to end last season, Oklahoma should feel good about its chance to compete in a loaded SEC in 2026.

Mateer is back after a strong season. If he can stay healthy, he should look more like he did the first half of last season. The offense added plenty of firepower from the transfer portal with the acquisitions of Harris and Livingstone. And barring something unexpected happening, the OU defense should be a strong suit again.

That said, it’s tough to overlook the difficult nature of the Sooners’ 2026 schedule. Oklahoma has a tough non-conference matchup with Kyle Whittingham’s Michigan. The boys from Ann Arbor feel way more buttoned-up compared to last season. Oklahoma also has tough SEC games against Georgia, Texas, Florida, Ole Miss and Texas A&M. At least three of them could be a top-10 quality team by kickoff.

For that reason, Oklahoma will take a slight step back, finish in the seven-to eight-win range and miss out on the College Football Playoff in 2026.

The Sooners’ Offense Will Improve its Efficiency This Fall

Mateer produced some jaw-dropping feats in 2025, especially in the first five games. His dual-threat abilities were a real strength, and he played like one of the better quarterbacks in the conference before a thumb injury derailed his season.

But even with Mateer looking the part early, Oklahoma lagged in offensive efficiency. The Sooners struggled mightily in the run game. They went without a 500-yard rusher on the year and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. A lot of that came down to the offensive line's struggles.

This offseason, Oklahoma added four transfer offensive linemen. The hope is that the unit can coalesce quickly and make an immediate impact in the run game.

There’s almost no way Oklahoma will be that bad in the run game again. Pencil me in as a believer in this group improving its efficiency in 2026.

Oklahoma Will Have at Least Two 500-Plus Yard Rushers in 2026

The same logic applies to this bold prediction. I have a hard time thinking Oklahoma will endure the same struggles in the run game this season.

This spring, Oklahoma took a running back-by-committee approach. The two top returning backs, Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock, missed significant time, which opened the door for players like Lloyd Avant, DeZephen Walker and Jonathan Hatton to get valuable reps.

Looking at the depth chart, the running back position will likely be one of the most competitive position battles the Sooners will have all camp. Couple that with the new-look offensive line, and you have more than a few reasons the run game will improve in 2026.

One way or another, Oklahoma will find a way to be a better rushing team, and two 500-yard rushers feels like a fairly safe bet.

The Sooners Will Have a Difficult Time Replacing R Mason Thomas

Arguably, the biggest bright spot from last year’s Oklahoma defense was the performance from edge rusher R Mason Thomas. He played like a man possessed last fall, tallying 26 tackles and a team-high 6.5 sacks. Thomas is off to the NFL, which means Venables will need to find ways to replace his production.

Even with Thomas gone, this group returns a lot of talent. Taylor Wein, Jayden Jackson and David Stone are all back, and should form an incredibly disruptive trio. Danny Okoye and Adepoju Adebawore should also get plenty of snaps this fall.

I love the pass-rusher-by-committee approach. That can work in the right system, and it might work for Oklahoma this fall. But it’ll be tough to find a like-for-like replacement for Thomas. His presence will be missed in a big way.

Oklahoma Will Lose a Third Straight Game to Texas

The Oklahoma-Texas game is one of the sport’s best rivalry games. It’s premier television every season and has provided fans with some memorable moments over the years.

And although most games in that matchup feel close, Texas has had its way with the Sooners over the past few seasons. The Longhorns have won the last two meetings, and I think they’ll notch their third in a row in 2026.

Texas is absolutely loaded. The Longhorns bring back quarterback Arch Manning, acquired superstar wide receiver Cam Coleman and will have a new-look defense under coordinator Will Muschamp. Texas also plays a loaded schedule, and can’t afford to slip up against Oklahoma.

This one will be close, but for the third time in a row, Texas will walk out of Dallas with a victory.