Nico Hoerner is going through a serious June Swoon. So how is it that he is also a fantasy baseball buy-low candidate heading into July?
The Cubs’ second baseman finished his 2025 campaign with the second-highest batting average in the National League (.297) and the third-most hits (178). Fast forward to June 2026, and Hoerner is batting .172 with no home runs and two RBIs on the month. The 29-year-old, who signed a six-year extension with Chicago this year, has never gone through a slump like this.
As it turns out, there are two causes to his current decline. And, fortunately for Hoerner, both can be reversed. Understanding these two causes is what makes Hoerner a clear buy-low case in the current fantasy market.
The xwOBA Story — What the Contact Quality Actually Says About the Slump
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We’ve seen this before. The surface stats only tell part of the story. Meanwhile, the underlying metrics show that contact quality is intact and a slump is bustable.
Such is the case with Hoerner’s full-season Statcast profile. He has logged an 85.8 average exit velocity, 28.1% hard-hit rate, and 1.1% barrel rate, which are on par with his metrics from previous seasons. His .327 xwOBA eclipses his .290 wOBA, and his 7.3% strikeout rate ranks him in the 100th percentile.
The mechanics are clearly there. So why the slump?
It’s because Hoerner’s 2026 BABIP is a career-low .242, which is also way below the league average. Mix a high xwOBA with a severely low BABIP, and you get monumentally bad luck at the plate.
Hoerner’s career BABIP hovers around .300 according to FanGraphs, so the insanely low number he’s experiencing now should normalize. He should see more success in the future, since his contact quality is still there.
The Swing Change — The Cubs Did Something That Ron Coomer Called "Borderline Irresponsibly Stupid"
It’s not just luck. Hoerner’s coaches have reportedly contributed to his slump as well by messing with his batting stance.
Cubs radio analyst Ron Coomer revealed on 104.3 The Score that the coaching staff has been working to get Hoerner to pull the ball more. That means he is standing shallower in the batter's box, and contact is happening at a wider batting stance. Since Hoerner has been an opposite-field-heavy hitter throughout his career, this experiment and mechanical change have been a disaster.
“They're trying to get him to pull the ball and hit the ball, because, you know, he's a really strong guy, and use the power that he has in the game,” Coomer said. “That hasn't worked out real well because he's gone from hitting .300 to hitting .240, let's say, and he's in the worst slump of his career because of him trying to do that. It's tough to make big adjustments in a major league season when you're trying to also compete."
It’s worth mentioning that there were more mechanical concerns when Hoerner was hit by a pitch in the front of the helmet on April 29. He missed time a few days later due to neck tightness, which the second baseman believed was related to the HBP. However, Hoerner’s defensive metrics haven’t changed, suggesting his motor skills and reaction are still good. This incident is an outlier and not impacting his batting mechanics.
There is good news here: Hoerner’s swing change is a coach-imposed experiment and not a sign of declining skill. When the Cubs recognize that the experiment is destroying one of their best hitters' natural approach, they will pull it back. (And since Chicago has invested $134.69M in Hoerner through 2032, that change will happen.)
Once Hoerner goes back to his more natural opp-field ways, he should rebound quickly at the plate. And that is what makes him such an intriguing buy-low case in fantasy baseball.
The Buy Case — What to Offer, Who to Target, and the Specific Trigger That Confirms the Reversal
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At Hoerner’s current slump prices, he should be acquirable for a second-tier outfielder or an SP3. Owners shouldn’t pay too much by trading away an OF1 or an SP2 since Hoerner isn’t that valuable right now. Keep in mind, a manager selling Hoerner is likely fixated on his low June batting average and isn’t necessarily taking his high xwOBA or the swing change into consideration.
Fantasy managers who want to acquire Hoerner at a discount need to keep an eye on his opposite-field hitting. Once the data shows Hoerner hitting oppo at a 25% or more rate, that signals the experiment is over. His BABIP will begin to normalize toward his xwOBA-supported hitting quality, and his value will go up.
Questions About Nico Hoerner, Answered
Why is Nico Hoerner slumping in 2026?
Hoerner’s slump appears to stem from two factors: unusually poor BABIP luck despite strong underlying contact metrics and a coaching-driven swing change designed to get him to pull the ball more.
Should I buy low on Nico Hoerner in fantasy baseball right now?
Yes. His xwOBA remains strong, his BABIP is well below his career norms, and the swing-change issues appear reversible, creating a favorable buy-low opportunity.
What is the swing change Cubs coaches asked Nico Hoerner to make?
The Cubs have been encouraging Hoerner to pull the ball more by altering his setup and contact point, moving away from the opposite-field approach that has defined much of his career success.
Should I be worried about Nico Hoerner's April 2026 HBP to the helmet?
The helmet HBP and subsequent neck tightness are worth monitoring, but his defensive performance has remained strong, suggesting no obvious decline in reaction time or motor skills.
How does Nico Hoerner's BABIP affect the buy-low case?
His .242 BABIP is well below both league average and his career norms. If that number moves back toward his historical level, his results should improve substantially.
