In a previous Athlon Sports article we addressed Nico Hoerner’s early season slump, it causes, and how based on his expected stats, he was a good buy low candidate. At the time the article was published, Hoerner was mired in a full-blown early season slide, as evidenced by his disappointing 77 game stretch in which posted a .235/.313/.332 triple-slash.
In the two plus weeks since that article was published it seems that Hoerner may be starting to very slowly wake from his long early season slumber, and we’re starting to see his overall offensive stats gradually increase. Is his buy-low window already starting to close? Let’s find out.
The Diagnosis in One Paragraph, Not a Full Rebuild
Through his first 35 games, the back of Hoerner’s baseball card looked as good as it ever had. He was batting .300, had an .834 OPS and was coasting with a 162-game average that had him on pace for a career high 18 home runs and a seemingly normal (for him) 32 stolen bases.
Since then, the bottom fell out of his season. In his next 57 games Hoerner batted .199, didn’t hit a home run, and had a .525 OPS.
How could a ball player who entered the season with a career .282 BA, who was second in the NL with a .297 BA and had the third most hits (197) in the league, suddenly struggle to reach the Mendoza line?
Back in May I wrote about how Hoerner tweaked his batting stance to generate more power in his swing. As previously noted by Athlon, Cubs radio analyst Ron Coomer confirmed that the Cubs were hoping that Hoerner could learn to pull the ball more, tap into his natural strength, and hit more home runs.
Where the Turnaround Stands Right Now
I’d love to report that Hoerner is hitting more home runs than usual and that his overall unusually low .233 BA is the result of him sacrificing his batting average for power, but I can’t. Hoerner hasn’t hit a home run since April 21st.
It looked like Hoerner had turned the corner starting in late June. From June 19th through July 5th Hoerner compiled a .283/.333/.400 triple slash and hit seven doubles in those 15 games, but in his next six games he finished the first half in a 2 for 22 mini slump.
Hoerner’s Statcast statistics still leave room for optimism. His squared-up rate remains elite and is at the 97th percentile (that means Hoerner realized 97% of the maximum possible exit velocity available to him based on the speed of the swing and pitch). His plate discipline is among the best in baseball. Hoerner has more walks (36) than strikeouts (33) and his strikeout % is in the 100th percentile, and his whiff % is in the 98th percentile. Based on his quality of contact his .284 xBA ranks in the 90th percentile, per Statcast.
What Hoerner Costs Now, and What He Should Cost by August
Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
A savvy fantasy baseball manager should be able to use Hoerner’s pedigree, and Statcast percentile rankings and expected stats to work out a favorable deal. However, with Hoerner’s full bounce back yet to fully materialize, the trade market favors the buyer right now.
In our previous article we suggested that based on his market value at the time, Hoerner could be moved for a second-tier OF or SP3. Recent trades might signify that fantasy baseball managers are willing to pay slightly more for Hoerner compared to just a few weeks ago.
A recent trade in a Yahoo! fantasy baseball league actually had Hoerner traded in a one for one deal for Padres SP1, Michael King. Another trade had Hoerner moved for struggling Mets SP2, Freddy Peralta. Hoerner was also traded for Mets surging 3B/SS Bo Bichette in a recently completed Yahoo! fantasy baseball league trade.
Hoerner’s trade value has ticked up as he is showing signs of breaking out of his season-long slump. Perhaps fantasy baseball managers currently rostering him should take advantage of this and try to move him now. Of course, his trade value might climb further as the season progresses and managers look to strengthen their playoff-ready fantasy rosters.
The Risk Case for Buyers
Some point to potential lingering effects from a batting helmet hit by pitch incident from April 29th as being a risk factor in trading for Hoerner. He dealt with muscle tightness and neck stiffness after the incident, and some suggest it could have affected his timing and might still be contributing to his issues at the plate. If it was an issue, based on his recent uptick in offensive production, I tend to believe it is not an issue now.
Should we categorize Hoerner as a buy low candidate? Well, unfortunately the major fantasy baseball projection models agree that while Hoerner’s offensive stats will improve, they are unlikely to approach his prior career levels this season.
Their rest of season projections are very pedestrian and predict that his batting average will be in the .264 to .276 range, and that he’ll hit another two to four home runs and steal another 10 to 11 bases. Based on CBS fantasy baseball scoring Hoerner is ranked as the 15th second baseman based on total fantasy points scored and 23rd based on fantasy points scored per game. There is room for improvement but based on those statistics if you are in need of middle infield depth you might want to look elsewhere, and if you do end up trading for Hoerner make sure you are truly buying low based on who you’re giving up.
Questions About Nico Hoerner, Answered
Is Nico Hoerner still a buy-low candidate in fantasy baseball?
Hoerner can still be viewed as a buy-low candidate because his full rebound has not yet materialized, leaving the trade market tilted toward buyers. However, the expected improvement appears modest, so any trade should come at an appropriately discounted price.
What caused Nico Hoerner's June slump?
Hoerner's slump followed a period in which he adjusted his batting stance to generate more power. The Cubs encouraged him to pull the ball more, a change confirmed by Cubs radio analyst Ron Coomer, and his production declined significantly during that stretch.
What is a fair trade offer for Nico Hoerner right now?
A second-tier outfielder or an SP3 represented a fair valuation earlier, and recent trades suggest his market has improved slightly. Managers may need to pay somewhat more than they would have a few weeks ago, but the market still generally favors buyers while his production remains inconsistent.
Should fantasy managers worry about Hoerner's April hit-by-pitch to the helmet?
The April 29 hit-by-pitch and the resulting neck tightness are worth acknowledging, but the recent improvement in his offensive production suggests the incident is unlikely to be a significant ongoing concern.
