The Cincinnati Bengals come home from a 30-27 loss in Pittsburgh that has them sliding in the power rankings, and most of the national experts still expect them to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
It is not a comfortable majority. Cincinnati is favored by 2.5 points, and every score prediction below has the game decided by seven points or fewer. The pickers who went against the Bengals pointed to a defense that gave up three touchdown passes to Aaron Rodgers and to a Jacksonville unit allowing the fewest points in the league.
CBS Sports
Pete Prisco’s pick: Bengals 23, Jaguars 17
Pete Prisco has the Bengals winning by six in his Week 4 picks. He doesn’t expect Jacksonville’s scoring defense to survive Joe Burrow and the passing game, writing that it “won’t hold up here.”
John Breech agreed in the network’s staff picks. He wrote that Cincinnati “practically gave the game away” in Pittsburgh, then added that “the Bengals never seem to make mistakes like that” against Jacksonville. Four of seven CBS panelists took the Bengals against the spread.
Pro Football Talk
Mike Florio’s pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 27
Mike Florio’s pick comes down to a streak. He wrote in PFT’s Week 4 picks that Trevor Lawrence “has beaten every team in the AFC except the Bengals.” With Burrow comparing this team to his 2019 LSU squad, Florio said “a 2-2 start is not acceptable.”
ESPN
Staff picks: Bengals 2, Jaguars 1
FPI: Jaguars, 54.6 percent
Pamela Maldonado (30-27) and Seth Walder (27-24) both have Cincinnati by a field goal in ESPN’s Week 4 guide, and Eric Moody took Jacksonville 34-31. The network’s Football Power Index is the outlier. It gives the Jaguars a 54.6 percent chance to win, by an average of 1.1 points.
Walder also predicted that Jaguars edge rusher Travon Walker will finish with no more than one pass rush win because right tackle Amarius Mims “is off to a hot start with a 92.9% pass block win rate.”
NFL.com
Editors’ picks: 3 on Jaguars, 2 on Bengals
This is the one panel where Cincinnati is in the minority. Brooke Cersosimo (29-24) and Gennaro Filice (31-24) picked the Bengals, but three editors went with Jacksonville in NFL.com’s weekly picks. Bobby Kownack wrote that if the defense can’t limit the damage again, “Joe Burrow and Co. will have a mighty tough task keeping up.”
Fox Sports
Will Hill’s pick: Jaguars +2.5
Will Hill didn’t pick a winner. The Fox Sports betting analyst called it a toss-up and took the points, writing that the Jaguars “look like a contender and could easily be 3-0.” Hill also noted the history between the quarterbacks, who met in the 2019 college football national title game.
Athlon Sports’ staff was evenly divided. Craig Ellenport and Doug Farrar took Cincinnati to cover, while Cory Bonini and Luke Easterling sided with the Jaguars. The Bengals and Jaguars kick off at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
