We’re approaching the mid-season mark in college football, and the first half of the year has given us plenty to digest when it comes to evaluating the top quarterback prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft class.
This class was billed as a potentially elite group, but the biggest names with the most preseason hype have struggled to live up to those high expectations. That said, others have emerged from under the radar, keeping the potential of the group fairly high in terms of overall depth that should give NFL teams plenty of strong options at the top of the board.
How many quarterbacks look like first-round prospects at this point in the process? Is Arch Manning still one of them? Can Austin Simmons crash the top-32 party? Will Drew Mestemaker leave two years of eligibility on the table to perhaps be the first passer off the board?
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As we look ahead to the rest of the college football season, and further toward draft weekend in April, here’s an updated look at how I stack the top passers eligible for the 2027 NFL Draft:
1. Darian Mensah, Miami (FL)
Still the most consistent performer I’ve seen among this group in 2026, Mensah checks every box from both a mental and physical standpoint. He’s got enough arm talent to make every throw, has the processing and anticipation to put the ball in the right spot at the right moment, and he makes sound decisions with the football while throwing with accuracy and the right balance of touch and velocity.
Mensah is a tough competitor, a calm presence in the pocket, and he’s athletic enough to make positive things happen when the pocket breaks down. His numbers have been impressive this season, but more importantly for his draft stock, he continues to show all of the most important traits NFL teams are looking for in a potential franchise passer.
2. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
I had a second-round grade on Chambliss heading into the 2026 NFL Draft, but his play so far this year continues to prove that he’s a first-round talent. He’s smart, tough, athletic, competitive, and has a live arm that can beat opposing defenses in tight windows and over the top. He doesn’t make a ton of mistakes with the ball, and his proven track record of starting experience and success at every level shines through.
The doubters will point to his lack of ideal size and the fact that he’s an older prospect, but I don’t think either of those things will be an issue for most NFL teams, if any. Whoever drafts him will be getting an experienced, mature leader with all the physical tools to be a franchise passer in the NFL, even without the prototypical frame. He might be the prospect on this list most prepared to make an immediate impact at the next level.
3. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State
I’ve seen Mestemaker at the top of the board for some other analysts, and it’s not hard to understand why. If you just made a highlight tape of Mestemaker’s best throws from this season, you’d wonder why he wasn’t the easy front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick. His ability to make difficult throws look extremely easy, both from the pocket and on the move, will have NFL scouts daydreaming about his potential.
I still think there’s some improvement needed in terms of consistency and decision-making here, but that’s to be expected from a redshirt sophomore. The sky’s the limit for a passer with his arm talent and athleticism, even if it might take a little patience as he refines his skill set. If he decides to leave multiple years of eligibility on the table and make the jump to the pros after this season, I won’t be surprised if that upside makes him the first quarterback off the board.
4. Dante Moore, Oregon
It’s tough to slot Moore right now due to his injury-related absence, but even before he went down with a head injury against USC, Moore hadn’t consistently looked like the version we saw last year. He passed up the chance to potentially be the No. 2 overall pick in 2026 to return to school and handle some unfinished business with his teammates, but the first half of the season hasn’t helped his draft stock.
Hopefully, Moore is back to full strength as soon as possible, and is able to get back to the player we saw throughout the 2025 season. He may not have any particular physical trait that jumps off the tape, but at his best, Moore has proven he can be efficient and accurate, poised and collected in the pocket, with the ability to throw with consistent accuracy and ball placement. I still think he ends up being a top-15 pick next April.
5. Austin Simmons, Missouri
The biggest riser in this group, Simmons has emerged as a legitimate first-round prospect with a strong start to his 2026 campaign. A big, athletic passer with an absolute cannon for a left arm, Simmons has been making NFL-level throws on a weekly basis all year up to this point, showing the ability to rip the ball into tight windows, beat defenses with an accurate and powerful deep ball, and fire throws from the far hash without losing zip.
There’s still room for Simmons to improve in terms of accuracy and overall consistency, and he finally proved he can actually throw interceptions with one in each of his past two games. But Simmons has prototypical size and arm talent, and has enough mobility to negotiate a muddy pocket and extend plays. He’s a battle-tested senior who continues to ascend, and I won’t be surprised if he’s a first-round pick.
6. CJ Carr, Notre Dame
Much like Mestemaker, Carr is a high-upside passer with multiple years of college eligibility still remaining after this season, but he’s talented enough to consider making the leap to the pros in 2027. He’s been accurate and efficient all year long, tossing 16 touchdowns and rushing for three more, while throwing just one interception through seven games. Carr’s 2026 film is full of NFL concepts perfectly executed.
Carr is another prospect who doesn’t have that one elite trait that separates him from the rest of the class, but the sum of the parts looks like the foundation of a quality NFL starter. He could benefit from another year of starting experience at the college level, but if he ends up making the jump after this season, he could end up being a top-10 pick for a team that’s willing to be patient with his development and surround him with a quality supporting cast.
7. Arch Manning, Texas
It was always going to be a challenge for Manning to live up to the ridiculous expectations that came with his last name, but I think we all assumed at some point, he would develop into a top-tier NFL prospect. That still hasn’t happened yet, and Manning has gone from the consensus No. 1 overall pick to questions swirling about whether or not he’ll finish the year as the Longhorns’ starter.
Plays like that are the reason why Manning could still entice an NFL team to swing for the fences on his potential with a first-round pick, but even 30-plus games into his college career now, this still feels like a quarterback who needs to come back for another year and finally find that consistency. He’s not a first-round prospect for me right now, and if he gets benched, Manning will be better off coming back to school and finally proving he can be a reliable starter in college before he tries to be one against NFL competition.
Other NFL Draft Notes
- It was disappointing to see Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons go down with an injury during Saturday’s win over Florida. Simmons was just as dominant against the Gators as he’s been all year, bagging four tackles for loss and another sack before leaving the game on a cart. He leads the FBS with 10.5 sacks so far this season, and has been the most dominant defensive player in all of college football. ESPN’s Pete Thamel is reporting it’s a high-ankle sprain, and while that could definitely force Simmons to miss some time, that’s better than a serious injury that would end his season and impact his draft process.
- The top of the draft order looks wild right now. If the 2027 NFL Draft was held after Week 6, the 0-6 Los Angeles Chargers would have the No. 1 overall pick. The Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers would all have a top-10 pick, and the New York Jets would have two, neither of them being their own thanks to trades with the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts. The Cleveland Browns’ original pick would be No. 26 overall, while the pick they got from the Los Angeles Rams in the Myles Garrett trade would be 11th. There’s still plenty of football left to be played, but nobody could have predicted the order would look like this right now.
- QB-needy teams picking at the top of this draft could have a dilemma on their hands, thanks to a class that lacks a clear-cut top prospect at the position right now. Will they prioritize the importance of the position and take the best passer on their board over elite prospects with higher grades at other positions? Will they pass on Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith or Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore? What about blue-chip edge defenders like Texas’ Colin Simmons or South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart? It will be interesting to see how these teams approach that decision in the top 10.
