No NFL myth is more persistent and less accurate than “next year’s quarterback class is going to be loaded.” While some classes are genuinely deep, the only guarantee is that we will always overrate several quarterbacks. At this time last year, Cade Klubnik, Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar, Arch Manning and LaNorris Sellers populated the first round of most look-ahead mock drafts. While Manning and Sellers returned to school, the rest fell to later rounds. Only a few writers had eventual No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza on their radar at this time last year.
College quarterbacks are like cars; their value starts to depreciate the longer scouts watch them. Now they have incentive to stay in college because of name, image and likeness deals. Teams will have more time to see their warts and lower them on their draft boards. If a quarterback’s only concern was draft position, going back to school is risky. That’s why Anthony Richardson (No. 4 overall in 2023) and Ty Simpson (No. 13 this year) were smart to come out when they did.
The New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins all passed on QBs in the first round and will presumably be eager to take one next April. The Minnesota Vikings, Carolina Panthers and several other teams could join that list. The demand will be high. That doesn’t mean the supply will be there, despite early projections.
© Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
No surprise, every look-ahead mock draft — including this one from Athlon Sports’ Luke Easterling — is loaded with quarterbacks. The following QBs have appeared in first-round projections:
Arch Manning, Texas
Dante Moore, Oregon
CJ Carr, Notre Dame
Julian Sayin, Ohio State
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Brendan Sorsby, Texas Tech
Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State
Darian Mensah, Miami
Drake Lindsey, Minnesota
Six more quarterbacks have decent (top-20) betting odds to be the No. 1 overall pick: USC’s Jayden Maiava, Indiana’s Josh Hoover, LSU’s Sam Leavitt, Baylor’s DJ Lagway, Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Pitt’s Eli Holstein.
The sheer number of household names for college football fans seems to boost this ’27 class into rarefied air. In reality, there is as much unknown with this group as with any future set of prospects.
Looking back at recent history, as early mock drafts spread, so did misses at quarterback. Sometimes draft writers didn’t see potential risers coming, like Joe Burrow or Cam Ward. Often, they overrated college stars. While trying to guess a year early is difficult, the top draft writers are surprisingly accurate at most positions. They’re less precise at QB.
Here’s a look at five notable misses over the last decade that should serve as warnings for anyone who thinks they know which players will go in the 2027 first round:
Matt Barkley, 2012
When Barkley said he was returning for his senior year at USC, ESPN wrote: “He was projected by many draft experts as a top-10 pick in April's draft, with most ranking him behind only Stanford's Andrew Luck as the top quarterbacks in the country.” Whether that was how teams viewed him or not, Barkley went back and struggled a bit because of injuries. He fell to the Eagles in the fourth round.
Jake Fromm, 2020
Fromm entered his junior season at Georgia with high expectations. He was ranked No. 4 overall in Bleacher Report’s look-ahead mock draft. Despite a decent season, the NFL held Fromm’s physical shortcomings against him, and he fell to the Bills in the fifth round.
Sam Howell, 2022
The North Carolina quarterback was listed in the top five of early mocks, but then all the talent around him in Chapel Hill left for the NFL and his passing numbers dipped. At just over 6 feet, Howell had little room for error and fell to the Commanders in the fifth round.
Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
© Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images
Spencer Rattler, 2022
Rattler is the example of the No. 1 overall recruit out of high school being overhyped in college. After a solid sophomore season at Oklahoma, he was widely projected to be a top-10 pick. He lost his job to Caleb Williams, transferred to South Carolina and was taken by the Saints in the fifth round in ’24.
Shedeur Sanders, 2025
Sanders was projected to be a top-five pick by both CBS Sports and ESPN before entering his final season at Colorado. Despite playing well, Sanders had one of the most publicized draft falls in history. While Sanders may be a unique case, he’s a perfect example of how complicated the process can be and why no player is a sure thing.
Other QBs in recent “way too early” first-round mock drafts who did not meet expectations:
2025:Carson Beck (Georgia), Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
2024:Quinn Ewers (Texas)
2023: Tyler Van Dyke (Miami), Tanner McKee (Stanford)
2022: Malik Willis (Liberty), Kedon Slovis (USC), Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati), JT Daniels (Georgia), Matt Corral (Ole Miss), Carson Strong (Nevada)
2021: Jamie Newman (Georgia)
2020: Jacob Eason (Washington), Nate Stanley (Iowa)
2019: Drew Lock (Missouri), Clayton Thorson (Northwestern), Shea Patterson (Michigan), Ryan Finley (N.C. State), Jarrett Stidham (Auburn)
2018: Luke Falk (Washington State)
2017: Brad Kaaya (Miami)
