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Welcome to NFL conference championship week. The AFC title game pits the top two seeds in the conference, but with the added twist that the No. 1 seed Denver Broncos will be taking the field against the New England Patriots without their No. 1 quarterback. In the NFC, meanwhile, we’ve got a rubber match between NFC West rivals. The Los Angeles Rams and top-seeded Seattle Seahawks split their regular-season series, and the two games were decided by a total of three points.
The Seahawks were the only one of these four teams that had a relatively easy win in the divisional round. The Rams have already played two playoff games that have come down to the wire. The Patriots seemed to be in control last week against the Houston Texans, but the win wasn’t really secure until late. The Broncos needed overtime to defeat the Buffalo Bills — and now they must play the AFC Championship with a quarterback that hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game in more than a year.
Here's a closer look at both games, with our staff picks against the spread:
Patriots -5.5 at Broncos
Jarrett Stidham’s situation is similar to the position Jeff Hostetler was in back in 1990 when he took over for an injured Phil Simms. The Giants were heavy underdogs in the NFC Championship Game to the two-time defending champ San Francisco 49ers. But Hostetler didn’t have to move heaven and earth, because he had an elite defense that held the 49ers to 13 points. The Giants never reached the end zone, but five field goals was enough for a 15-13 win. Denver’s defense has the ability to give Stidham a chance. The Broncos have held nine opponents this season to 17 or fewer points. They led the league in sacks, and the Patriots offensive line struggled to protect Drake Maye last week. In addition to pressuring Maye, Denver probably needs to force a few turnovers to give the offense shorter fields. The other question here is whether or not Broncos head coach Sean Payton has any tricks up his sleeve.
Patriots: uke Easterling, Doug Farrar, Andrew Perloff, Kyle Wood
Broncos: Craig Ellenport
Rams +2.5 at Seahawks
The Rams won at home against Seattle in Week 11, 21-19. The Seahawks avenged that loss with a wild 38-37 home win in Week 16. The Seahawks got a tough blow when running back Zach Charbonnet was lost for the season with a torn ACL in last week’s win over the 49ers, but they can at least feel good about the fact that No. 1 back Kenneth Walker III is playing his best ball right now. Over his last four games, Walker is averaging 127.3 scrimmage yards — that includes the win over the Rams in which he had a 55-yard TD run and 164 all-purpose yards. In a matchup between the Rams’ No. 1 scoring offense (30.5 points per game) and Seattle’s No. 1 scoring defnese (17.2 points per game), it’s woth noting what the Seahawks have allowed in the three games before and after that Week 16 win over the Rams. In their last seven games, the Seahawks have allowed 37 points to the rams and 44 points to everyone else (7.3 points per game).
Rams: Ellenport, Perloff
Seahawks: Easterling, Farrar, Wood