Another winnable game got away from the Houston Texans. They fell to 0-4 after the Cowboys rallied for a 34-30 victory Sunday. Houston led 30-27 with just 2:23 remaining, but Dallas marched 74 yards for the winning touchdown. The late collapse was another reminder that Houston’s defense has not looked like the unit that powered the team last season.
C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns, while receiver Nico Collins returned from injury with seven catches, 118 yards and two scores. Houston moved the ball well, but its defense could not make the final stop against Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
Houston has now lost four straight, though three of those defeats have been by one score. Against Dallas, the Texans even had a 78.5% win probability with two minutes left, according to ESPN’s analysis. The difficult question remains- is Houston genuinely a bad team, or simply a much better team than its record suggests?
Why the 0-4 Texans May Be Better Than Their Record
Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
The record looks terrible, but the individual games tell a different story. Houston’s losses to Buffalo, Indianapolis and Dallas have all been decided by one score. The Cowboys game was the latest example, where the Texans led late before Lamb’s touchdown ended it.
The Bengals loss was the outlier. Houston lost that game 20-6, but even there, the Texans’ defense made life difficult for Joe Burrow, holding Cincinnati to a 27.6% offensive success rate, according to ESPN’s Ben Solak. That suggests the Texans have been competitive in more areas than their 0-4 record indicates.
ESPN’s analysis pointed to Houston’s defensive approach against Lamb. Dallas repeatedly created favorable matchups and attacked Houston’s defenders in space. The Texans did not adjust enough, and the Cowboys kept taking the easy yards.
Can Houston still make the playoffs? The answer is yes, but history is strongly against them.
The Texans already made history last season by becoming the first team under the current playoff format to reach the postseason after starting 0-3. They then won 12 of their next 14 games and finished 12-5.
But 0-4 is a different challenge. Only one team in NFL history has made the playoffs after starting 0-4, the 1992 San Diego Chargers. That gives Houston a blueprint, but not much margin for error.
They face the Tennessee Titans in Week 5, another winless team. After that, their schedule includes Jacksonville, the Giants, the Chargers, Cleveland and Indianapolis. An immediate winning streak could change the conversation quickly, but Houston cannot afford another late collapse.
