The New York Jets should consider themselves fortunate that they play in the same division as the Miami Dolphins.
The once-mighty Florida team is widely predicted to be pro football’s worst squad for the 2026 season. The Dolphins have experienced a two-thirds roster turnover, with 35 players on the Week 1 active roster who were not active for Week 1 of the previous season.
The Dolphins have a new coach in Jeff Hafley and got rid of several long-time starters, including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa wide receiver Tyreek Hill, edge rusher Bradley Chubb, and receiver Jaylen Waddle
Unfortunately for the Jets, they also play in the same division as the New England Patriots (Super Bowl representatives last year) and the Buffalo Bills, perennial playoff contenders.
The Athletic has come out with its NFL Playoff Simulator, a calculation on the odds for teams that are most likely to end up with a playoff berth in all seven seeds in the AFC and NFC.
The Athleticestimates odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often each team makes the playoffs, gets the No. 1 seed, the No. 1 draft pick and so on. The publication estimates each team’s probability of winning each remaining game using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data, including team records, roster changes, weather, game location and more advanced measures like expected points added and success rate.
The Jets are calculated to have a 6% chance to make the playoffs, 1% to win the division, less than 1% to win the division with a bye, and less than 1% to win the Super Bowl.
The Dolphins are 1% in the same categories across the board, a sign that the team may be lucky to get two wins on the year. The Cleveland Browns (4%), the Arizona Cardinals (<1%) and the Tennessee Titans (3%) are the only other teams calculated with single-digit odds to make the playoffs.
Of course, games are played on the field, and injuries, weather and unexpected breaks in turnovers can influence who does what.
But take heart, Jets fans. The Athletic’s calculations do show some belief that the team can rise up and seize a playoff spot. As Jim Carrey said in the film Dumb and Dumber when asking for his prospects, “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Yes, there’s a chance. A longshot, to be sure. But a chance.
