It’s a "Swing-for-the-Fences Saturday," and several hitters are stepping into dream power spots across the slate. We have pitchers giving up plenty of home runs, fly-ball rates pointing toward trouble and a few bats bringing elite matchup profiles into Saturday’s action.
Colson Montgomery faces a pitcher who has been allowing home runs in bunches while carrying one of the highest fly-ball rates around. Nolan Arenado draws a matchup against a hurler who has already surrendered 15 long balls this season, and Jake Burger takes on a pitcher he’s literally taken deep in every career at-bat faced. If you’re chasing home run props on Saturday, these are bats with serious moonshot potential.
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- Best First-Inning Run Predictions (NRFI/YRFI) for Saturday, June 6
Best Home Run Props Today
Colson Montgomery Home Run Bet (+300)
Andrew Painter has been serving up home runs like they're on a buffet line, allowing seven home runs in his six starts during May. That's music to the ears of Montgomery, who has been feasting on right-handed pitching all season. Eleven of Montgomery's 15 home runs have come against righties, and his hard-hit and barrel numbers back up the power surge. Painter's sky-high fly-ball rate only adds to the appeal.
Nolan Arenado Home Run Bet (+547)
Zack Littell has been one of my favorite pitchers to target for home run props this season, already serving up 15 long balls. That brings Arenado into play Saturday. Arenado has seen Littell plenty over the years and owns a solid 5-for-12 line with a homer against him. Littell's fly-ball tendencies always create home run opportunities, and Arenado continues to put the ball in play at a high rate.
Jake Burger Home Run Bet (+391)
Burger is a hard guy to ignore on Saturday; he's seen Tanner Bibee exactly twice in his career and somehow both at-bats ended in home runs. That's about as good a scouting report as you'll find. Bibee has already allowed 13 home runs this season, while Burger has crushed right-handed pitching with seven of his 10 bombs coming against righties. Throw in Burger's elite hard-hit rate, and this matchup has all the ingredients for another souvenir heading into the seats Saturday.
2026 MLB HR Leaders
- DH Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (23)
- DH Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (21)
- 1B Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox (20)
- OF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (18)
- C/1B Ben Rice, New York Yankees (18)
- OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (17)
- 1B Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
