MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 12

Pete Alonso, Ezequiel Tovar and Pete Crow-Armstrong headline Wednesday's MLB home run predictions with favorable matchups and strong power potential.

by Andrew Phelps

Aug 12, 2026

Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) runs the bases after hitting a two-run home run

David Banks-Imagn Images

It's the "Wednesday Wallop Watch," and three sluggers are in prime spots to go deep. Pete Alonso brings a scorching bat into his matchup with Zebby Matthews after homering three times over his last three games. Ezequiel Tovar draws Merrill Kelly, a pitcher he's already taken deep twice. Meanwhile, Pete Crow-Armstrong faces MLB debutant Jackson Kent after blasting his 27th homer Tuesday.

If you're looking for Wednesday's best home run props, Alonso, Tovar and Crow-Armstrong have the matchup, history and power to leave the yard.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.

Best MLB First-Inning Predictions (NRFI/YRFI) for Wednesday, Aug. 12

Best Home Run Props Today

Pete Alonso Home Run Bet (+250)

The Polar Bear is on an absolute heater, crushing two homers Sunday before adding another Tuesday night. Alonso now has 26 bombs with a monster 54.3% hard-hit rate, and 20 have come against righties. Zebby Matthews has surrendered 17 home runs this season, with most coming against right-handed bats.

Ezequiel Tovar Home Run Bet (+352)

Tovar may not have monster power numbers, but he sure seems to enjoy seeing Merrill Kelly on the mound. Tovar is hitting a ridiculous .444 in 18 career at-bats against Kelly with two homers, while seven of his nine bombs this season have come against righties. Kelly has also served up eight home runs over his last eight starts.

Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Bet (+443)

Crow-Armstrong is already bringing the fireworks this week after blasting his 27th homer Tuesday. The Cubs star owns a 49.4% hard-hit rate and has handled left-handed pitching well, batting .310 with seven home runs and a .945 OPS in 142 at-bats. Kent will make his MLB debut after posting a 3.72 ERA with 105 strikeouts in 94 1/3 minor-league innings this season. Crow-Armstrong’s power and improved work against lefties keep him in play despite the same-handed matchup.