MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets for Saturday, Aug. 22

Alec Burleson, Joc Pederson and Carson Benge headline Saturday’s MLB home run picks with power-friendly matchups primed for long-ball potential.

by Athlon Sports
MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets for Saturday, Aug. 22

New York Mets right fielder Carson Benge (3) hits a two run home run

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

It’s “Swing-for-the-Fences Saturday,” and three left-handed bats have matchups worth attacking. Alec Burleson gets Andrew Painter, who’s surrendered 11 homers to lefties and two in his last start. Joc Pederson faces Ryan Johnson, a pitcher he’s already taken deep and who’s allowed 10 bombs over his last eight starts. Meanwhile, Carson Benge draws Luis Castillo, who’s coughed up 10 homers over his last seven outings.

If you’re looking for Saturday’s best home run props, Burleson, Pederson and Benge have the splits, power and matchups to send one into the seats.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.

  • Best MLB First-Inning Predictions (NRFI/YRFI) for Saturday, Aug. 22

Best Home Run Props Today

Alec Burleson Home Run Bet (+487)

Burleson has found the launch button and apparently decided not to turn it off. He’s already matched his career high with 21 homers, including six bombs this month, and 18 have come against righties. Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to left-handed thunder, surrendering 11 homers to lefties and two long balls in his last start.

Joc Pederson Home Run Bet (+TBD)

Pederson saw Ryan Johnson once and immediately sent him a welcome gift to the bleachers. Now he gets another shot at a righty who’s coughed up 10 homers over his last eight starts. Pederson lives for these matchups, with 21 of his 22 bombs coming against righties and 14 at home. Johnson has struggled with left-handed power, too.

Carson Benge Home Run Bet (+591)

Benge is starting to heat up, and another ball could be headed for the cheap seats Saturday. He’s already gone deep twice over the last week, while 11 of his 15 homers have come against righties and 10 on the road. Luis Castillo has been handing out souvenirs lately, allowing 10 bombs over his last seven starts and 14 to lefties this season.

2026 MLB HR Leaders

  • DH Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (37)
  • DH Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (36)
  • 1B Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (36)
  • 3B Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (35)
  • C Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies (34)
  • 1B Ben Rice, New York Yankees (34)
Published:
by Athlon Sports

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