The Minnesota Vikings entered their bye week at 5-0 after beating the New Orleans Saints 23-13 on Oct. 11, and their defense has been the foundation of that start. Minnesota has won games with a range of offensive outputs, but it has repeatedly put opponents in uncomfortable spots late.
That has created a fair question for the Vikings: Is this simply an excellent start, or the sort of defense that can carry an imperfect offense through January?
Locked On Vikings host Luke Braun and co-host Arif Hasan made the case that Minnesota’s opening five games belong in a different statistical tier. Hasan said his drive-based research had the Vikings allowing 1.07 points per offensive drive, with return touchdowns removed. He said Minnesota still ranked first after he adjusted the figure for scoring environment and opposing offenses.
Hasan also pointed to the gap between Minnesota and the rest of the league in expected points added allowed. His conclusion was not that the Vikings have already settled any historical debate. It was that a defense separating from the field by that much has earned a serious Super Bowl conversation.
The fourth-quarter numbers supplied the sharper image. Hasan said the Vikings had allowed only 12 rushing yards per fourth quarter and about three points per fourth quarter through five games. Braun said that kind of late-game resistance can push opposing play callers toward desperate decisions, including aggressive fourth-down attempts that feed an attacking defense.
The caveats are obvious, too. Five games can produce wild splits, and Minnesota’s first five opponents included the Miami Dolphins and Saints, two offenses that have struggled. Hasan noted that Aaron Schatz’s DVOA framework rated the Vikings well below the strongest five-game defensive starts in its database, even as other measures placed them near the top of recent history.
Still, the show identified a workable blueprint. Braun and Hasan compared Minnesota’s situation with defense-led title teams such as the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2015 Denver Broncos. Their point was not that the Vikings can stay limited on offense without consequence. It was that turnover avoidance and a defense that closes games can give a team a path when its offense is not carrying the load.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores also enters the bye amid a separate off-field development. Front Office Sports reported Oct. 13 that a court unsealed a memo by recruiting firm Korn Ferry prepared for the Las Vegas Raiders during a coaching search. Flores’ lawyers have argued that language in the memo supports his racial-discrimination claims. Flores remains Minnesota’s defensive coordinator, so the Vikings return from their bye with both a 5-0 record and a defense that has put him back at the center of the league’s football conversation.
Minnesota’s next test comes Oct. 25, when the Indianapolis Colts visit U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings do not need to prove their defense is one of the best in league history that afternoon. They need to keep showing that its first five games were more than a hot start.
More on the Minnesota Vikings
- Vikings ground attack should get stronger after bye week
- Kyler Murray Is the Least of the 5-0 Vikings’ Reasons for Winning, and That Could Change
- Flores discrimination suit gains traction with release of recruiting firm’s memo
- 3 Wide Receivers Who Could Be Traded Before NFL Trade Deadline
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