Like It Or Not, the Bucs Are Being Smart About Baker Mayfield's Contract

Baker Mayfield wants a huge raise and long-term security, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneershaven't been willing to meet either of those demands.

Throughout the offseason, there had been vague comments from Mayfield about how he and the team weren't close in their negotiations on a new contract beyond this season, with Mayfield imposing a deadline at the start of training camp to get a new deal done before shifting his focus fully to his on-field performance.

But as camp opened this week, Mayfield got a lot more specific about the chasm between him and the team he's leading, making pointed remarks in his press conference and multiple 1-on-1 interviews with various outlets regarding his disappointment with the Bucs' offers up to this point.

Despite being a Heisman Trophy winner and a No. 1 overall draft pick, Mayfield is no stranger to being doubted, as he continues to carry the massive chip on his shoulder that started when he was forced to go the walk-on route in college. He was tossed out of Cleveland after trying to play through a shoulder injury in his final season, then bounced between the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams before signing a cheap one-year deal with the Bucs following Tom Brady's departure following the 2022 season.

Mayfield responded with a strong performance in 2023, and the Bucs rewarded him with a three-year extension worth up to $100 million. That looked like a bargain in 2024, when Mayfield enjoyed the best season of his career, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns.

Things looked good to start the 2025 season, too. The Bucs got off to a 6-2 start, with Mayfield playing at an MVP level. But they sputtered down the stretch, with injuries piling up, including multiple to Mayfield, through which he continued to play. They lost seven of their last nine games, ending Tampa Bay's streak of four straight NFC South titles.

Now, things get tricky.

It's clear that Mayfield wants to be paid for the best of what he's brought to the Bucs, and at full strength, he's proven he can be the kind of quarterback who's worthy of the $50 million per year range. But he's still yet to prove he can be that player consistently enough, and healthily enough, given the somewhat reckless abandon of his playing style.

From Mayfield's comments, we can assume the Bucs' offers haven't gone beyond a two-year deal, and haven't approached the $50 million per year range. If that's the case, there are reasons the team might be hesitant to match those numbers.

This is a make-or-break year for head coach Todd Bowles, who surprisingly survived last year's collapse and missing the postseason despite such a strong start, much of which could be laid at his defense's inability to deliver in clutch situations. If the Bucs don't show marked improvement this year and return to the top of the division, it's likely they'll be looking for a new head coach next offseason. The best candidates might prefer to hand-pick their own franchise quarterback, instead of being handed Mayfield at the start of a massive new contract. They may also want to see how Mayfield performs without Mike Evans, who signed with the San Francisco 49ers this offseason after 12 years in Tampa Bay.

The organization has said all the right things about Mayfield during his time with the team, making it clear they view him as their franchise passer. But now Mayfield wants them to put their money where their mouth is for a second time.

It's also worth noting that while much of the blame for not getting a deal done will be directed at the front office and general manager Jason Licht, quarterback negotiations are often driven largely by ownership. I imagine that's the case here, too, with the Glazer family playing a significant role in the decision-making process.

Look, it's completely understandable for Mayfield to approach the situation exactly like he has, pointing out the many benefits of his presence, and the fact that he's earned long-term security from a team that's claimed they're "all in" on him as the face of the franchise. But it's also a smart move for the team to see what unfolds this season before making that kind of long-term commitment at the financial level Mayfield wants.

If Mayfield already wants a new deal that tops $50 million per season, it won't be much more expensive than that for the Bucs to hammer out that kind of deal after the season, should he deliver on his promise to put up big numbers in 2026. Only two quarterbacks in the league are currently making more than $60 million per year (Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott), and even if Mayfield commands that kind of number after the season, that's not a huge difference from what he's demanding right now.

But if the Bucs give him that three/four-year deal worth more than $50 million per year now, and he struggles through another injury-riddled season, they've already committed the next few years of the franchise to a player they might not be able to count on, at the game's most important position, while limiting their ability to allocate salary cap space to other players elsewhere on the roster. The risk of having to pay an extra $10 million a year after a successful season is more attractive than the risk of having already paid $150-200 million in guaranteed money after a failed one.

So for now, yes, this feels ugly for the Bucs, especially after an offseason that included the departure of Evans and the retirement of fellow future Hall of Famer Lavonte David, another contract dispute (and trade request) from star defensive lineman Vita Vea, and the shadow of a potential lame-duck season for Bowles and the coaching staff.

But all of the bad vibes at One Buc Place right now will disappear if Mayfield channels that perceived disrespect into another productive season that puts Tampa Bay back in the playoffs, earning himself a well-deserved pay day, and giving the Bucs stability for the foreseeable future.

If Mayfield doesn't deliver, the Bucs won't enjoy having to find a new starting quarterback next offseason, but they won't have to worry about having already made a massive financial commitment at the position in return for inconsistent results.