Two flashpoints have defined Kentucky’s 6-1 start and rise to the No. 12 team in the country.
The first came in a road game against South Carolina on the first weekend of October. The Wildcats fell behind in overtime and needed a big-time play in the extra period to pull within striking distance. With the game hanging in the balance, new coach Will Stein elected to go for two instead of tying the game and going to double OT. Kentucky converted the gutsy attempt and walked off the Gamecocks in Williams-Brice Stadium.
The second pivotal moment came a week later, and it followed a similar set of circumstances. Kentucky survived two brutal, late-game field goal misses against LSU to force overtime. LSU, much like South Carolina, scored first in the extra period and kicked the extra point. Right on cue, Kentucky answered with a touchdown of its own, and for the second time in two weeks, opted for a two-point conversion attempt and the win. Quarterback Kenny Minchey cleared out the backfield, took the snap and ran a quarterback draw for a walk-off win.
The Wildcats have received lots of well-deserved credit for converting in pivotal moments. But that’s only part of the story. Kentucky has been incredibly efficient at winning the turnover battle and it’s played a massive role in the dream start for Stein and company.
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Kentucky is Winning the Turnover Battle at an Alarming Rate
Turnovers have the power to swing seasons and games. Right now, Kentucky is not only beating opponents, but is doing an excellent job of not beating itself.
The Wildcats currently rank third in the country in turnover margin at +11 through seven games. Kentucky also has a turnover percentage of 4.8%, almost half of the league average, according to Hudl IQ.
It’s not always as simple as winning the turnover battle, but sometimes it is.
When a team creates turnovers at a good clip, it gives an offense extra bites at the apple. When a team doesn’t shoot itself in the foot with turnovers, it keeps drives alive and on schedule. When a team does both things at an excellent rate, you have a perfect storm of multiple chances at extending drives and flipping games with field position, both of which often lead to more wins.
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Through seven games, the Wildcats are perfecting the art of creating turnovers and not turning the ball over simultaneously. It’s led to a blazing hot start, with the Wildcats suddenly in the mix to win eight or more games in Stein’s debut season.
Kentucky is Grinding Teams Down with an Efficient Brand of Football
Turnover margin aside, the Wildcats are doing an excellent job of staying on schedule and grinding teams down with an efficient offensive game plan.
The Wildcats are averaging 2.5 points per drive, are successful on 53.9% of all plays and are successful on 58.5% of all rushes, all above league average, according to Hudl IQ.
Minchey hasn’t exactly been a world-beater, but he has done an excellent job of not turning the ball over and keeping this offense on schedule.
Through seven games, he’s averaging 0.07 EPA/play and 0.08 EPA/pass, both above league average, according to Hudl IQ. He’s also completing 68% of his passes and has posted an insanely low 0.5% interception percentage, according to Hudl IQ.
Good teams don’t always need superstar quarterbacks to lead them into battle. Oftentimes, teams just need guys who don’t make critical mistakes and who do a solid job of keeping the offense on schedule. Through the halfway point of the regular season, Minchey has done both things at a high level, and it’s a big reason why the Wildcats are in the position they’re in right now.
The final five games of the regular season should be an interesting test case for whether just not making mistakes is enough to beat good teams over the long haul of a full season.
The Wildcats still have big games looming against Tennessee, Florida, Missouri and Louisville. All of those teams bring interesting things to the table. It should be fun to watch and see whether Kentucky can stay on schedule and continue to punch above its weight in some critical spots down the stretch of the regular season.
