Jonathan Taylor knows the Tennessee Titans as well as any defense in the AFC South division. In his last three games against them, the Colts running back ran for 218, 102 and 153 yards and scored nine total touchdowns, according to Colts.com.
This season has been harder. Taylor has 398 yards and six touchdowns on 101 carries, and his 3.9-yard average is the lowest of his career. He addressed the missing big runs this week, and the Colts’ staff spent the days before Sunday talking about getting him back to the second level.
Here’s what to expect when the Titans visit Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday.
He’ll be the workhorse again
Taylor has carried 19 or more times in four of five games, topping out at 24 in the overtime loss at Kansas City. The exception came in Pittsburgh, where the Colts trailed for most of the afternoon and Taylor finished with 15 carries for 45 yards while Daniel Jones threw 44 passes.
A 6.5-point favorite at home against a team that has scored 58 points all season should be able to lean on him. Head coach Shane Steichen admitted the chunk runs from 2025 have gone missing. “Obviously, the chunk plays like we saw last year, we haven’t had those in the run game, and it’d be great to get back to that and get those explosives going forward,” Steichen told Colts.com this week.
Tennessee’s front will make him earn it
This matchup is tougher than the Titans’ record suggests. Tennessee has allowed 570 rushing yards on 161 carries, 3.5 yards per attempt, and Jeffery Simmons is a big reason. Simmons owns an 81.0 overall grade and a 76.0 run defense grade, fifth among 134 interior defenders, according to his PFF player page.
Taylor’s own PFF profile shows the strain. His 68.7 rushing grade ranks 19th of 45 backs, and he’s averaging 2.76 yards after contact per carry. He also has 13 runs of 10 or more yards, so the explosive plays haven’t vanished. They just haven’t broken into the open field.
“If he’s got space and he gets through there, that’s when he gets to the second and third level and makes some guys miss in those situations,” Steichen said. The Colts’ interior line has to win early downs against Simmons for that space to open.
He’ll find the end zone again
© Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Taylor’s six rushing touchdowns are tied for fourth in the NFL, and he scored twice in each game against Baltimore, Kansas City and Washington. Tennessee has allowed five rushing touchdowns in five games.
Seventh-round rookie Seth McGowan has 17 carries, and Tyler Warren and Daniel Jones each have a rushing touchdown. Taylor is still the first option when the Colts get close, and a defense that has given up only 3.5 yards per carry won’t change that inside the 5-yard line.
A fair expectation for Sunday is 21 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown, plus three catches for 20 yards. That would be a step up from Pittsburgh, and it would keep Taylor on the workload the Colts have trusted all season.
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