Joe Burrow Gets a Titans Pass Defense Ranked 26th by Success Rate, and No Jeffery Simmons

Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans head to Cincinnati to face Joe Burrow this weekend, days after trading Jeffery Simmons to the Bears for two first-round picks, and the numbers on both sides of the ball were already working against them.

Tennessee (1-6) ranks 31st in the league in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense and 23rd on defense. Cincinnati (4-2) is coming off a 35-13 rout of the Ravens and ranks sixth in offensive EPA per play.

The Bengals rank higher in all 12 head-to-head categories below, though a few of them are close.

Titans Defense vs. Bengals Offense

Joe Burrow has completed 157 of 219 passes (71.7%) for 1,653 yards, 15 touchdown passes and three interceptions, good for a 110.4 passer rating, according to ESPN. Cincinnati ranks third in dropback success rate. Tennessee ranks 26th in dropback success rate allowed.

EPA = Expected Points Added. Rankings are league-wide through Thursday of Week 8, via rbsdm.com.

Losing Simmons hurts that matchup most. He had four sacks and 24 pressures before the deal, and Jacob Martin (3.5 sacks) and Jermaine Johnson II (three) are now the top pass rushers left in Nashville. Johnson is also a name in trade talks.

The run defense is the closest thing to a fair fight. Tennessee ranks 13th in rush success rate allowed, and Chase Brown is averaging 3.5 yards per carry on 82 attempts. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. leads the Titans with 68 tackles, though PFF grades his run defense at 49.3, 68th of 75 linebackers.

Titans Offense vs. Bengals Defense

Ward is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt with four touchdown passes, five interceptions and a 73.8 rating, and the Titans rank 29th in dropback EPA. His second season is hanging over the 2027 draft order, with Tennessee holding the No. 1 pick if the season ended today.

Cincinnati’s soft spot is dropback success rate allowed, where it ranks 24th. Tennessee’s passing offense ranks 27th in that same category, so there isn’t much to press. The Titans may also be without Carnell Tate, their leading receiver with 34 catches for 413 yards, after he missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a shoulder injury.

Ward has been sacked 11 times, and Cincinnati’s 39.1% pressure rate is tied for seventh in the league. Boye Mafe leads the Bengals in sacks, and safety Jordan Battle has three of the team’s interceptions.

The Bottom Line

The Titans’ best number on either side of the ball is a 13th-place ranking in rush success rate allowed. That’s thin footing on the road against a team averaging 27.2 points per game.

Tennessee’s path runs through Tony Pollard, who has 478 yards at 4.3 yards per carry. If the Titans can stay on schedule on the ground and shorten the game, they can limit how many possessions Burrow gets. Pollard is also a trade deadline candidate, so Sunday could be one of his last chances to carry this offense.

Two first-round picks for Simmons could pay off down the road. This week, his absence lands right on the matchup the numbers already flagged as Tennessee’s biggest problem.

More on the Tennessee Titans

• Carnell Tate Injury Update Leaves Cam Ward Without His Top Receiver Against the Bengals
• 3 Bold Predictions as the Titans Square Off With the Bengals, Starting With Tony Pollard
• Four Concerns and Three Encouraging Signs in the Titans’ First Game Without Jeffery Simmons
• How Carnell Tate’s 413 Yards on 51 Targets Compare With Ja’Marr Chase’s 754 on the Same 51 Targets in His First Seven NFL Games