Good blocking makes every running back look better, which makes it hard to know who deserves the credit. A chart from analyst Ben Baldwin sorts that out, and it puts Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren in a spot no other back occupies. That fits what Pittsburgh has looked like since it found the formula for its offense in Week 3.
Baldwin plotted every back with at least 20 carries on two measures: Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt and his team’s season-long run-blocking grade from PFF. Warren’s dot is alone in the top-right corner. Pittsburgh has the highest run-blocking grade on the chart, and Warren is gaining 1.45 yards per carry more than expected, third among 51 qualifying backs behind Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker III and Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson.
Jaylen Warren is adding to good blocking
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
The expected-yards number already includes the blocking. Next Gen Stats builds it from where the ball carrier, blockers and defenders are at the handoff, so a back with a wide lane is expected to gain more. Warren has 309 yards on 55 carries, 77 more than the model projects. He has beaten expectation on 54.7% of his runs, the highest rate among those 51 backs.
Those watching the Steelers on TV can hear Warren’s pads popping when he steps into a blitzer as well as those in attendance at Acrisure Stadium. The latter group roars in appreciation, as Warren has become a fan favorite.
Steelers offensive line heating up
The line has earned its grade. Guard Mason McCormick’s 84.1 run-blocking mark ranks fifth in the NFL among guards, according to PFF, and center Zach Frazier is at 73.7. Warren’s share shows up after contact. PFF credits him with 15 missed tackles forced and 3.76 yards after contact per attempt, both fifth among 46 running backs.
There is a sample-size catch. About 57 of those 77 extra yards came in one game, the Week 3 win over Cincinnati.
He has still finished above expectation in all four games, including at Cleveland, where the Browns put eight or more defenders in the box on 41.2% of his carries, per Next Gen Stats. That matters because Rico Dowdle could return this week from the toe injury that has cost him two games. Steelers coach Mike McCarthy said Monday that Dowdle is “making progress” and that he still sees a “one-two punch,” according to Nick Farabaugh of PennLive. Dowdle had 37 yards on 15 carries before the injury. The Colts visit Sunday with Jonathan Taylor, who has six rushing touchdowns behind another highly graded line but sits 0.31 yards per carry below expectation. Warren’s numbers argue for him to keep most of the work.
