J.K. Dobbins closed out his old team on Sunday. With the Denver Broncos up three and 3:19 left in Los Angeles, Sean Payton handed him the ball on every snap of the final drive, and Dobbins ran four times for 26 yards to set up the clinching field goal against the Chargers. Next up is a much tougher run defense, as the Seattle Seahawks come to Mile High on Thursday night.
Dobbins finished with 18 carries for a season-high 68 yards and his first touchdown of the season, a 2-yard run in the first quarter. He has 229 yards on 64 carries for the year, 3.6 per carry. Dobbins spent 2024 with the Chargers and is in his second season in Denver.
He’ll be the lead back again
Darren Yamashita - Imagn Images
The backfield changed when Payton took play-calling back from Davis Webb. RJ Harvey out-snapped Dobbins 29-21 in the loss to San Francisco. Against the Chargers, Dobbins played 32 snaps to Harvey’s 23 and handled 18 of Denver’s 28 runs, according to PFF. He came into the game averaging 11.5 carries.
Denver called 28 runs against 34 dropbacks in Payton’s first game back, according to PFF, and there’s no reason to expect him to throw more against a defense that leads the league in passing yards allowed. Dobbins should get somewhere around 15 to 18 carries again.
The yards won’t come easy
Seattle allows 3.7 yards per carry, eighth-best in the league, and has given up two rushing touchdowns in five games. DeMarcus Lawrence’s 87.9 run-defense grade through four weeks led the unit, according to PFF, and Byron Murphy II has been disruptive inside. Denver’s own run game is at 3.6 yards per carry, and the backfield entered last week 28th in PFF’s rushing grade.
The best hope is up front. Quinn Meinerz had a 91.9 run-blocking grade through four weeks, the best on the line, according to PFF. Seahawks linebacker Ernest Jones is the player the Broncos offensive line has to account for. He had 28 tackles and 11 stops through four games, according to PFF, and he led Seattle’s defense with an 83.5 grade against San Francisco. Expect plenty of 3- and 4-yard gains, with Payton using Dobbins to stay ahead of the chains.
Harvey will take the passing downs
Dobbins has five catches all season. Harvey has 20 for 132 yards, and he has played most of Denver’s two-minute snaps. If Seattle gets ahead and the Broncos have to throw, Dobbins’ workload will shrink quickly. His volume depends on Denver staying close, which it has done in every game at home.
A goal-line chance
Seattle stops the run, but it hasn’t been as good once teams get close. Opponents have scored touchdowns on 9 of 12 red-zone trips, which ranks 26th. Dobbins got the goal-line carry Sunday and scored. With the total at 40.5 for Thursday night, one short touchdown could be the difference.
A fair expectation is 16 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown. He won’t need a big night if he gets the last drive again.
More on the Denver Broncos
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- 3 Reasons the Broncos Will Beat the Seahawks, and 2 Reasons They Won’t
- Poll of the Day: Who Wins Seahawks-Broncos on ‘Thursday Night Football?’
- Is There Bad Blood Between Sean Payton and Mike Macdonald? 5 Broncos-Seahawks Things to Know
