On Thursday night, Jacob deGrom added another milestone to his illustrious career, recording his 2,000th strikeout in the Texas Rangers’ win over the Washington Nationals.
deGrom recorded the strikeout in typical deGrom fashion, firing a nasty 93 mph slider down and in against Nationals rookie infielder Abimelec Ortiz. The strikeout was, of course, a major benchmark for deGrom in his 13th major league season. But it was also a monumental moment in baseball history.
deGrom reached 2,000 strikeouts in just 1,661 career innings, becoming the second-fastest pitcher ever to reach the milestone. Only Chris Sale did it faster, reaching 2,000 in 1,626 innings.
With deGrom reaching another major milestone, now is as good a time as any to revisit the question: Is he a future Hall of Famer? Let’s take a deeper look.
After throwing six shutout innings of one-hit ball with one walk and 10 strikeouts Thursday, here’s a look at deGrom’s updated career numbers.
The right-hander has made 272 starts, going 105-73 across 1,666.1 innings with a 2.66 ERA and 2,008 strikeouts. He also owns a 147 ERA+, 2.74 FIP and 0.997 WHIP. His career bWAR now sits at 47.4, which ranks 18th among all active players.
His 2.66 career ERA is by far the lowest among active pitchers, with Sale the closest behind at 2.96. The same is true for several other major rate statistics, including FIP, WHIP and ERA+.
As for accolades, deGrom is a five-time All-Star, two-time Cy Young Award winner and won National League Rookie of the Year in 2014.
Hearing all of that, it sounds like deGrom should undoubtedly be a Hall of Famer.
There’s just one major problem: He doesn’t have the longevity of other Hall of Fame pitchers.
If deGrom retired today, his 1,666.1 career innings would be the fewest ever by a starting pitcher inducted into Cooperstown. Dizzy Dean currently holds that distinction with 1,967.1 innings pitched.
However, Dean pitched in a completely different era, with his career spanning from 1930 to 1947.
A more fitting comparison is Sandy Koufax. His name has long come up when discussing deGrom’s Hall of Fame case because of his similarly shortened career. Koufax pitched just 12 seasons before retiring at 30 and finished with 2,324.1 innings.
Of course, deGrom isn’t retiring today. But he is 38-years-old and has just one year remaining on the five-year contract he signed with Texas. If he decides to call it a career after next season, he will almost certainly finish with the fewest innings of any Hall of Fame starting pitcher.
The other major statistic that has become increasingly important when assessing players is WAR.
As mentioned previously, deGrom’s career bWAR sits at 47.4. That ranks 122nd all-time among starting pitchers.
Many of the starters surrounding deGrom on that list are currently outside the Hall of Fame. Koufax, meanwhile, finished his career with 53.1 bWAR, a number certainly within deGrom’s reach before his career is over.
deGrom is arguably the hardest active player to evaluate when determining whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame.
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Since making his debut in 2014, he has consistently been one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. He also put together one of the greatest individual pitching seasons of the modern era in 2018, when he captured his first Cy Young Award.
deGrom finished that season with a 1.70 ERA across 217 innings. It remains one of the lowest single-season ERAs by a qualified starting pitcher since MLB lowered the mound in 1969.
And that brings us back to the question at the center of deGrom’s Hall of Fame case.
The question with deGrom has never been whether he was dominant enough to reach Cooperstown. It’s whether he did it for long enough.
But if the Hall of Fame is meant to honor the greatest players to ever take the field, it’s hard to argue deGrom doesn’t belong.
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