Minnesota traded for LaMelo Ball on June 25, and the fantasy world has changed a lot ever since then. We have already been here twice, first in a piece on players who got the teammate they needed, then in a look at which 2026 blockbuster mattered most. Both landed in a similar spot. Ball makes life easier for Anthony Edwards. While that is true, it is also quite vague. So this piece goes after one specific thing: Anthony Edwards' shot profile, and whether Ball actually moves it. I plan to take a look at the shot chart, as well as where his threes come from, how often, and what the change is genuinely worth.
Edwards' Shot Profile, By the Numbers
In 2025-26, Edwards averaged 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists across 61 games. He shot 48.9 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from three on 8.4 attempts a night, with a 61.7 true shooting percentage and a 21.8 PER. Every one of those marks was a career high.
Now, here is where it gets really interesting. Edwards took 139 catch-and-shoot threes and made 49.6 percent of them, the best rate in the NBA among players with at least 100 attempts. Those shots were only 27 percent of his total three-point attempts. More than 70 percent were pull-ups. That catch-and-shoot share has fallen almost every year since his rookie season, when it sat at 46.6 percent.
I do believe the shot mix of Edwards can move, but not by much. Ball is a passer, not a switch. A climb back toward 35 percent is fair. I would be shocked if it moves past 40 percent because that would mean Edwards stops being Edwards.
A Specific Projected Stat Line for 2026-27
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This is my own estimate. Not a model, not a team projection, not consensus. This is strictly my opinion.
When I wanted to come up with my projections, I had to use last season as my anchor: 20.2 field goal attempts, 8.4 threes and 7.2 free throws in 35.0 minutes. Then, you take a look at his non-catch-and-shoot threes which was about 36 percent. His catch-and-shoot threes landed at 49.6 percent, a number that will almost certainly cool toward the mid 40s.
Move the catch-and-shoot share from 27 percent to 36 percent and the arithmetic gives you about 40 to 41 percent from deep. That is a gain of roughly one percentage point. That's a real shift in the stat lines, although it is smaller than the buzz suggests.
For me, I believe Edwards would have about 70 games, 34.5 minutes, 29.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.6 threes, 40.8 percent from three, 62 percent true shooting.
The Injury History Nobody's Fully Addressed
Edwards finished the season having played 61 out of 82 games. You do the math, and you realize he missed 21 regular season games, and there's a lot to unpack from those games missed.
A right hamstring strain on October 26 ended his night against Indiana after three minutes. A toe infection then cost him three games in December and lingered long enough that Minnesota kept listing him for right foot maintenance. Right knee inflammation, formally patellofemoral pain syndrome, cost him six games in March, then knee pain and an illness on April 2 that pushed him under the 65-game award threshold.
He then suffered a hyperextended left knee and a bone bruise in Game 4 against Denver. He still came back and played 10 playoff games.
Draft take: Having looked at all of this, I would say that you keep him in the first round, but plan for about 70 games, not 76. Before last year he had never missed more than 10 games in a season. One bad year is not a pattern, at least not yet.
What This Actually Means for His Fantasy Ceiling
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Does he reach another level? I think he does. Hear me out. The shooting gain he has experienced is genuine, albeit a modest one. One percentage point from deep on roughly eight and a half attempts is a fraction of a made three per night. While you will see it in true shooting, you will barely see it in your three-point column.
The larger benefit is the physical benefit he has had to enjoy from all of this. Fewer possessions spent grinding through double teams means less mileage across 82 games, which matters enormously for a player coming off the season he had last season.
What gets sacrificed is his assists. Ball averaged 7.1 assists last season and ranked among only 15 players above seven. He runs the offense now. Edwards' 3.7 assists average is expected to reduce, rather than improve. If you are a manager in the category leagues, you should plan for that.
Conclusion: Draft Him Early
From all I have said so far, you should be able to figure out what's at play here. Edwards was the most accurate high-volume catch-and-shoot three-point shooter in the league last season and got barely a quarter of his threes that way. Ball manufactures exactly those looks. He finished second in the NBA with 272 threes made, one behind teammate Kon Knueppel, while averaging 20.1 points and 7.1 assists in 72 games.
However, there is context to all of that. Roughly a point of three-point percentage, a bump in true shooting, and a lighter creative burden. That is a very good season, but not a leap into a different tier.
Now set it beside 61 games, three separate in-season injuries and a knee that bent the wrong way in April. That's even more context right there. This is why I say: Draft him early. Draft him expecting 70 games. The efficiency case is solid. Availability is where we have a few question marks.
Questions About Anthony Edwards, Answered
How does playing with LaMelo Ball change Anthony Edwards' fantasy outlook?
Ball could shift more of Edwards' three-point volume toward catch-and-shoot opportunities. Edwards made 49.6 percent of his 139 catch-and-shoot threes last season, but those accounted for only 27 percent of his attempts. A modest change in that shot mix could improve his efficiency, although his assists could decline with Ball running the offense.
What were Anthony Edwards' actual 2025-26 numbers?
Edwards averaged 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists across 61 games. He shot 48.9 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from three on 8.4 attempts per game, with a 61.7 true shooting percentage and a 21.8 PER.
How healthy has Anthony Edwards been recently?
Edwards played 61 of 82 regular-season games after dealing with a right hamstring strain, a toe infection and right knee inflammation. He later hyperextended his left knee and suffered a bone bruise in the playoffs. Before last season, however, he had never missed more than 10 games in a season.
What stat line should fantasy managers project for Edwards in 2026-27?
A reasonable projection is about 70 games, 34.5 minutes, 29.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks and 3.6 threes per game, with 40.8 percent shooting from three and 62 percent true shooting. That is the writer's own estimate rather than a model, team projection or consensus figure.
