Welcome to March, everyone.
The 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is set to get underway later this month. The best three-week stretch of the year is always a thrilling one. The NCAA Tournament feels like one of the most unpredictable events in all of sports.
However, history would tell us that this year's NCAA Tournament champion is actually fairly predictable.
There have been 10 teams in NCAA men's basketball history with a net rating of 35.0 or greater. Of those 10 teams, seven have played in the national title game. Four of those teams have won the national championship.
So, if you have a net rating of 35.0 or better, that means you have close to a 50 percent chance of winning it all. That's a pretty good number in a postseason event as unpredictable as the NCAA Tournament.
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The four NCAA teams with a 35.0 or better net rating for the 2025-26 season are:
- Duke
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Florida
History tells us that one of those four teams will be winning it all this year. It's close to 50 percent that the champion will come from that group.
ESPN's computer model predicts the champion
ESPN's computer model, meanwhile, likes Duke to win it all. The Blue Devils are No. 1 in ESPN's Basketball Power Index.
"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily," ESPN writes.
Who do you like to win it all?