The spiciest portion of the NBA offseason has mostly passed. But the lingering aftertaste of this summer’s biggest moves is having a profound impact on ADP and fantasy basketball draft boards.
Some players got an ADP boost because they’ve moved into a more fantasy-friendly scenario. Others have seen their prices dip because their minutes and usage could be cut. It’s up to fantasy managers to know the biggest risers and fallers now and get their fantasy draft scheme in order.
Here are the players owners need to be aware of now.
Biggest ADP Risers
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Tyler Herro
Herro was never the primary scoring option when he played in Miami, and moves on from a crowded offense to team up with Ryan Rollins in Milwaukee. Granted, the Bucks may try to flip Herro before the summer is over, so managers have to keep an eye on him. In early July, however, Herro’s ADP has gotten a healthy bump thanks to the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade moving him into a better offensive scenario.
LaMelo Ball
We aren’t saying Ball wasn’t a go-to playmaker in Charlotte. But the Hornets offense got crowded with emerging youngsters like Kon Knueppel. Meanwhile, Minnesota needed a secondary backcourt scoring option with Donte DiVincenzo being sidelined long-term. Ball is expected to take some of the pressure off Anthony Edwards while playing a significant role himself, which made his ADP rise since early June.
Darius Garland
Garland’s fantasy value was in the basement when he was traded to the Clippers mid-season because of lingering injuries and durability concerns. A late-season surge helped pick his ADP up in the spring, and now it has gone up again due to Los Angeles trading Kawhi Leonard to the Raptors. (More on him a little bit later.) The move makes Garland the new primary scorer, especially with fifth-overall draft pick Keaton Wagler joining the backcourt.
Biggest ADP Fallers
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VJ Edgecombe
As Athlon previously discussed, no 76ers player is more impacted by the Jaylen Brown trade than Edgecombe. His standout rookie season earned him more minutes into Philadelphia’s playoff run, and should have ensured he got a usage boost in 2026-27. Now, his playing time and opportunities are projected to deflate with Brown coming off a career season. Edgecombe is still projected to be a middle-round fantasy pick, but his usage and scoring have a lower ceiling.
RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley
Kawhi Leonard’s return to Toronto may be a championship reunion, but it has also done a number on Barrett’s and Quickley’s ADP. Leonard has much higher usage numbers than Raptors’ trade piece Brandon Ingram, and he will shift the offense to the frontcourt while Barrett and Quickley play secondary roles in the backcourt.
How to Use ADP Movement in Your Draft Strategy
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Yes, big offseason trades have made these players’ ADP move sharply. But offseason ADP movement should be monitored, not allowed to upend your entire fantasy draft strategy.
Remember, risers aren’t automatically good picks, and fallers aren’t automatically doomed for the entire next season. Edgecombe could end up with more minutes and usage if a teammate gets sidelined, even with Brown shouldering weight in the frontcourt. Likewise, Ball’s elevated ADP could take a dip if he sustains a preseason injury or gets off to a tough start with his new team.
The best practice for fantasy managers, particularly in redraft leagues, is to monitor teams for role clarity before finalizing draft targets. ADP will shift through training camp, and optimal draft positioning will be clearer right before the 2026-27 season starts. Owners can use Athlon’s ongoing 2026-27 fantasy basketball draft coverage to stay up-to-date on fantasy risers and fallers this offseason.
Questions About Risers And Fallers, Answered
Who has the biggest fantasy basketball ADP rise since June 2026?
Tyler Herro has seen the clearest rise in fantasy basketball ADP since June. His move from Miami into a more favorable offensive situation in Milwaukee following the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade has increased expectations for his fantasy production, giving him a healthy ADP boost entering the 2026-27 draft season.
Which players have fallen the most in fantasy basketball ADP since June?
VJ Edgecombe, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley have all faced downward ADP pressure. Edgecombe is expected to lose usage after Philadelphia added Jaylen Brown, while Barrett and Quickley are projected to play reduced offensive roles following Kawhi Leonard’s return to Toronto.
Does an ADP rise always mean a player is a good pick?
No. A higher ADP reflects increased expectations, but fantasy managers still need to evaluate whether the new draft cost is justified. Injuries, role changes, and preseason performance can all affect whether a player ultimately provides value relative to where he is being selected.
When does fantasy basketball ADP become most reliable?
Fantasy basketball ADP becomes more reliable as training camp progresses and player roles become clearer. Monitoring role clarity before finalizing draft targets helps managers make better decisions, since ADP can continue to shift throughout the preseason.
