It’s time for fantasy basketball managers to look into the future. Because it’s not necessarily the players who produced the most last season. It’s the ones who are about to get a usage upgrade next season.
Roster shuffles dominate this portion of the NBA offseason thanks to the NBA Draft and free agency. Through that roster movement, owners can get a better view of whose usage rate is about to shift upward because of vacant roles and new coaching schemes.
Let’s take a peek at why usage is so important for fantasy managers, and which players they should be targeting.
Why Usage Rate Is the Most Predictive Stat for Fantasy Basketball Value
Remember, usage isn’t about divvying up stats or logging the most minutes. It’s about how often a player ends a possession relative to everyone else on the floor. That’s why the average usage rate in the NBA is around 20%, and elite players eclipse 30% usage on the season. (Luka Doncic topped the league with 36.7% usage last season.)
Here’s where usage gets sneaky. Early ADPs are set based on last season’s rate. So the departure of a high-usage teammate or a coaching change that switches up ball-handling duties can cause usage to blow up.
The key for managers is to predict which roster changes will create the biggest usage bump before the rest of the league does.
Vacancy Plays: Players Stepping Into High-Usage Roles Left by Departing Stars
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Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks
The post-Giannis era has arrived, making Rollins a rotation staple following the massive roster turnover. The shooting guard is coming off a breakout season in Milwaukee, posting a career-high 17.3 points per game with well-rounded scoring from the field and from the charity stripe. Rollins is more efficient the more he plays, making him a good focal point for the starting rotation.
Maxime Raynaud, Sacramento Kings
Yes, Domantas Sabonis is still (at the time of this publication, at least) in Sac. But there’s no denying Raynaud earned himself a usage spike in 2026-27 following a breakout rookie season. The Stanford product finished his first pro campaign averaging 12.5 points on 57.1% shooting from the field. If the Kings want to turn their fortunes around, Raynaud’s usage will multiply.
Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies
Yes, Ja Morant is still (at the time of this publication, at least) in Memphis. But Jerome is waiting in the wings. Injuries cut deep into Jerome’s 2025-26 season, but he still managed 19.7 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the floor. He’s a pick-and-roll specialist who can take command of the Grizzlies’ backcourt next season, so his usage should get a boost.
System Shifts: Coaching Changes and Pace Increases That Unlock Usage
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Leonard Miller, Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have a new head coach in Tiago Splitter, and his scheme in Chicago’s youth rebuild should complement Miller’s emerging skill set. Miller had a massive minutes increase after being traded from Minnesota last season and went off, shooting 52.5% from the field in March and a staggering 57.7% in April. He also plays very well with emerging star Matas Buzelis, who is all but guaranteed a starting job next season.
Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans (maybe)
Murphy is an interesting case because he will have a new coach next season whether he stays in New Orleans or is part of a big trade to another team. His average points (21.5) shot through the roof in 2025-26, as did his shooting efficiency from the field and beyond the arc. A coach who prioritizes Murphy’s skill set will unlock usage gains next season.
How to Rank Usage Rate Targets for Your Draft Board
High-floor usage gainers and high-risk projections aren’t the same. The key is to target players who have confirmed situations for next season, whether that be a trade being official (i.e. Giannis), a coach being hired, or simply a role being confirmed.
Targeting for higher usage also has a different impact depending on your league format. In points leagues, usage increase translates most directly to scoring upside. In category leagues, players who also excel at rebounds, assists, and threes (think Rollins and Murphy) are most likely to produce in multiple areas with a usage boost.
Think a player is primed for a usage spike, but not sure about the roster around him? Athlon’s ongoing 2026-27 offseason fantasy coverage can help you rank the best usage rate targets this summer.
Questions About Usage Rate In Fantasy Basketball, Answered
What causes a player's usage rate to increase in fantasy basketball?
A player's usage rate increases when they absorb a larger share of their team's offensive possessions. Common catalysts discussed here include a high-usage teammate departing, a coaching change that redistributes ball-handling responsibilities, and roster movement that creates larger offensive roles.
Why does usage rate matter so much for fantasy basketball projections?
Usage rate reflects how often a player finishes possessions, making it one of the strongest indicators of potential fantasy production. Managers who identify usage increases before average draft positions adjust can gain value.
Which fantasy basketball players are projected for the biggest usage rate increases in 2026-27?
The players highlighted are Ryan Rollins, Maxime Raynaud, Ty Jerome, Leonard Miller, and Trey Murphy III because of projected role changes, roster movement, or coaching changes that could increase their offensive opportunities.
How should fantasy managers use usage rate when preparing for a 2026-27 draft?
Managers should focus on players whose situations are changing before the market fully prices in those opportunities, while weighing confirmed role changes more heavily than speculative ones.
