The trade deadline is three days away, so a whole new batch and winners and losers is about to be uncovered. But here we go, the July 31 edition of Winners and Losers. Tarik Skubal is still a Tiger as of this morning. Freddy Peralta is still a Met. The Red Sox are, improbably, buyers. None of that is guaranteed to still be true by the time you're reading this, and that tension is what we need to cut through. So let’s go.
Winner: Tarik Skubal
Skubal has not been traded. He's also almost certainly going to be, and soon. The two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner threw seven and a third innings against Baltimore this week in what may have been his last start in a Detroit uniform, reaching 1,000 career strikeouts as a Tiger in the process, the fastest pitcher in franchise history to get there. Detroit sits 4.5 games back in the wild-card race with five teams to jump, which is the kind of math that makes a rebuild-in-progress decide 2026 isn't the year after all. The Dodgers have emerged as the reported favorite, with the Cubs and Rays also engaged. Nobody has confirmed a completed deal as of this writing.
The fantasy read here is simple and a little unsatisfying: if you own Skubal, there's nothing to do but watch. A trade to a stronger defense or a lighter park doesn't meaningfully change a pitcher this good. A trade to a worse bullpen behind him could cost him a few wins. None of it touches the strikeouts. Hold him through the noise.
Loser: Freddy Peralta
Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
The Mets gave up Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, two top-100 prospects, to get Peralta from Milwaukee in January. Seven months later he's 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA over 22 starts and has failed to complete five innings in four of his last five outings, a stretch that includes a June 20 start in which he allowed 10 runs in two and two-thirds innings at Philadelphia. He's publicly said he expects to be traded again before Monday, and both the Brewers, who know exactly what they're getting back, and the Rays have been connected.
A change of scenery is not a fix by itself. Peralta's stuff hasn't disappeared, but a two-time All-Star who can't hold a lead past the fifth inning is a command and sequencing problem before he's a destination problem. Watch where he lands, but don't expect an immediate reversal just because the uniform changes.
Winners (somehow): The Red Sox
A month ago this was a seller's team, 14 games under .500 and shopping Aroldis Chapman. Then Boston ripped off a 15-game winning streak that tied the franchise record set in 1946, and the conversation flipped entirely. Craig Breslow is now reportedly pursuing Zach Neto, CJ Abrams and Shea Langeliers, and Boston has already made one move, acquiring infielder Curtis Mead from Washington for pitching prospect Connelly Early, a deal that immediately backfired when Mead fractured his wrist in his first game with the club. Jeff Passan named Boston among the teams likeliest to make a decisive move before Monday.
Chapman stays put through all of this. His trade has gone from likely to increasingly unlikely as Boston's record has improved, and a team spending prospect capital to add doesn't typically also subtract its best reliever the same week. Treat him as a hold, not a name to sell early out of habit.
This Week's Winners and Losers
It's been an interesting year to write about a sport that keeps changing its mind, and an honest one: some of the buy calls in this space were right, a few were early, and at least one closer graded Secure in May was out of a job by July. That's the business. Have a good rest of your season, whichever deadline moves actually happen by Monday.
If you are a fan of this content and want to continue to read about all things fantasy sports, head over to my substack here.
The Deadline Winners and Losers, Explained
Has Tarik Skubal been traded?
Not as of this writing. He remains a Tiger with the deadline three days away, and the Dodgers are the reported favorite if a deal happens, with the Cubs and Rays also involved.
Why is Freddy Peralta struggling with the Mets?
He's 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA across 22 starts since a January trade from Milwaukee, and he's failed to complete five innings in four of his last five outings.
Are the Red Sox buying or selling at the deadline?
Buying. A 15-game winning streak that tied a franchise record flipped Boston from sellers to active buyers, and the club has already acquired infielder Curtis Mead.
Is Aroldis Chapman getting traded?
It looks increasingly unlikely. Reporting has downgraded the odds as Boston's play has improved, though he remains a name other contenders are watching through Monday.
When is the MLB trade deadline?
Monday, August 3, 2026, at 6 p.m. Eastern.
