To say Evan Carter is having an up-and-down season is an understatement. The once-hyped Texas Rangers prospect was a World Series contributor when he joined the club in the fall of 2023. The next few seasons were not kind to the now 23-year-old outfielder, who has dealt with a handful of injuries that have sent his stats (and his fantasy stock) plummeting.
However, Carter returned from the mid-June IL stint to slightly better results at the plate, which makes fans and fantasy managers alike question whether he has worked on his swing mechanics. At this point in the season, has Carter made enough progress and shown enough of a change to make him worth picking up off the waiver wire?
A Prospect’s Rough Road to This Point
Injuries have been a significant part of Carter’s playing career, stretching back to when he was in the minors. Since coming up to the majors, he suffered back tightness and a fractured wrist in 2024, a quad strain in 2025, and the oblique strain that landed him on the 10-day IL in 2026.
Carter’s performance also suffered. He impressed when he was originally called up to the bigs, slashing .306/.413/.645 in 62 regular-season at-bats and hitting .300/.417/.500 in 60 at-bats during the Rangers’ postseason run. The injuries instantly knocked those numbers down, and he posted a .188/.272/.361 slash line the following season.
Even before the oblique strain, Carter’s batting line has been genuinely poor this season. He finished May with a .158 batting average and .636 OPS.
The most recent stats aren’t great, but they have looked better since Carter returned from his IL stint and briefly filled in for injured teammate Wyatt Langford. Carter has hit .313/.441/.500 with a .941 OPS in July and .333/.455/.519 since the All-Star break. That includes going 2-for-3 with an RBI and a stolen base in a 4-1 Rangers win against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 28.
What Swing Adjustments Actually Mean for Carter
Carter told 105.3 The Fan that he has made micro-adjustments to his swing since he returned from the IL, noting he worked on his rhythm and getting his back elbow “in sync.” He has maintained through his young career that he doesn’t want to completely overhaul his swing, but working elbow alignment is already showing positive regression.
FanGraphs confirms that Carter has had almost the same number of at-bats in June and July 2026, but the latter has better stats that line up with syncing his swing. His hard-hit rate has launched from 26.1% the previous month to 40.5%, while his strikeout rate has decreased from 35.0% to 20.0%. Meanwhile, his Statcast profile maintains he has maintained a 19.5% chase rate on the season, which is in the 98th percentile.
In short, Carter is making more contact since making mechanical adjustments to his swing without sacrificing his plate discipline.
Is the Contact Gain Showing Up in Results Yet?
The quick answer is: It’s complicated.
Yes, we already established that Carter is making more contact. But that has also made his wOBA shoot up to .415 in July, with his overall .304 wOBA on the season outpacing his .301 xwOBA for 2026.
That outperformance metric, plus a small sample size of three weeks' worth of games, suggests Carter is riding a hot streak. Not showing signs of sustainable change.
His other underlying metrics for the season are still low and haven’t caught up to his July improvements. While the chase rate and walk rate (13.0%, 89th percentile) are strong, his overall exit velocity (88.0 mph), barrel rate (5.9%), whiff rate (28.9%), and strikeout rate (23.4%) are all subpar.
The Fantasy Call: Believe or Wait?
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The real verdict: Carter has made some mechanical adjustments and seen better results, but the sample size is too small to determine if his current pace is sustainable. He also remains a high injury risk, making him a less-appealing waiver-wire pickup. (FantasyPros confirms Carter is rostered in fewer than 5% of leagues.)
League format determines how managers should respond here. Dynasty and keeper leagues can absorb more risk for the pedigree, which makes Carter a more intriguing target. Shallow redraft leagues, on the other hand, need to see sustainable change and more continued improvements before committing a roster spot to him.
Questions About Evan Carter, Answered
Has Evan Carter actually changed his swing in 2026?
Yes. Carter said he made micro-adjustments after returning from the injured list, working on his rhythm and getting his back elbow “in sync.” His July results have improved alongside those changes, including a higher hard-hit rate and lower strikeout rate compared with June.
Why has Evan Carter struggled so much in 2026?
Injuries and poor production have both contributed. Carter landed on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain in 2026 after dealing with back tightness and a fractured wrist in 2024 and a quad strain in 2025. He finished May with a .158 batting average and .636 OPS.
Is Evan Carter worth adding or holding in fantasy baseball?
Carter is more intriguing in dynasty and keeper leagues, where managers can absorb the risk associated with his injury history and small sample of improved results. Shallow redraft managers need to see more sustainable improvement before committing a roster spot to him.
