ESPN's Computer Releases Its National Title Game Pick

ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has finalized its pick for the national championship game on Monday night. Monday night's national title game will feature No. 1 Michigan against No. 2 UConn. The Wolverines are coming off a big win over No. 1 seed Arizona. UConn, meanwhile, took ...

by Andrew Holleran

Apr 6, 2026

An overhead general view of the court at the men's Final Four in San Antonio.

Tyler Schank/Getty Images

ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has finalized its pick for the national championship game on Monday night.

Monday night's national title game will feature No. 1 Michigan against No. 2 UConn. The Wolverines are coming off a big win over No. 1 seed Arizona. UConn, meanwhile, took down No. 3 seed Illinois in the Final Four.

Who will emerge with the win on Monday evening?

ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, has released its pick for Monday evening's game.

The Final Four. (Photo by Isaac Wasserman/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
Isaac Wasserman/Getty Images

ESPN's computer model, the Basketball Power Index, is going with No. 1 seed Michigan to take down No. 2 seed UConn.

The Basketball Power Index is giving No. 1 seed Michigan a 69.8 percent chance to win on Monday evening. It's giving No. 2 seed UConn just a 30.2 percent chance of pulling off the upset.

How does ESPN's BPI work?

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily," ESPN writes.